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are you expecting any specific catalyst(s) to trigger some buy flow today?

The fly may be more attractive if the vol skew is favorable. If not, you usually want the spread with smaller number of legs, to limit transaction costs.

1. Only wrong assumption here is that delta (assuming it was derived w/ implied) = future probability of price distribution. More likely than not, it's a 0EV trade over time before transaction costs. 2. How do you personally define "optimal"?

look up functional fitness training. I think the stuff associated with neck , back fitness could work wonders for you. Your health is super important in this business, good luck.

is there a credible source for Chinese credit impulse data?

" As far as my price prediction of over $100K, it's based on S2F model (Plan B), on-chain analytics (Willy Woo newsletter paid subscription, ... Having said all of that, I'm heavily invested in bitcoin so my prediction is biased :D " That S2F, i.e. a simply a storage/production ratio, doesn't...

i am aware of the short term dynamics, thanks. i didnt quite understand your explanation or suggestion of how to adjust for these variables in the cost estimate quantitatively. I really want to believe your forecast, can you elaborate a bit on how you came to the 100k eoy estimate? I want to he...

I'm mainly using the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index to do the estimate. Assuming that the Chinese have stopped all production. Current estimate is at about $27K USD per coin. Details of the calculation, graph will be tracked here...

My numbers are not expecting a spike in heating demand, but of course my model could be wrong and it rips before coming off. Either way, my estimate for Nov. is at around 3.8~. I've decided to share some of the things I've picked up over the year, around gas/oil, and posted how I came to the...

No explanation of what "safest approach" means here? And "safest" for whom? Find a job where the monthly salary is exactly 1% of the fund you're managing, then get your mom to work there, and convince her to give it all to you.

I see you like to jump to conclusions without having referenced any information. That's always a sign of a great trader!

so what's the trade?

what is the core logic of the trades? if it's only quantitative then they are just fixed rule based trades, and backtests mean nothing for many reasons. How can they be assessed? i had traders with much "better" backtest stats, and then only to find out exactly why they wont make money going...

by "customers", he means the guys he's selling the flow data to, i.e. Ken Griffin

finance.yahoo.com, just click "option chains"

Brilliant, this is exactly how Jim Simons makes money.

oh noOo, not the morningstar doji!!!

this is already available at yahoo finance

In the current state of things, you'll regret it. I don't want to explain why, because that'd make all the newbies in this thread better option traders.

FYI, "Hua Rong" means "Oyster Sauce Beef"