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AN ALLEGORY Some years ago the U.S. Mint began to issue five quarter coins per year in which one State is featured on each coin, and the coins are issued in the order in which each State joined the Union, making Delaware appear on the first quarter coin and Hawaii on the last one. The job...

AZD, Here is my understanding of your question, and I express it in the way I understand it, so that if I misunderstand you, you will know my misunderstanding. You are asking, “look, Dr. Chen, I see you’re making calls in the ‘strategy’ paragraph of the Crude Oil Market Analysis...

As I stated earlier, "I will endeavor to respond questions posted here." I have no control over how many "millions" of people will view Crude Oil Market Analysis. But "if you build it, he will come." Dr. Chen

AZD, Since I am being asked the reason why, I feel obliged to respond. Let me set up the structure of how I wish to proceed. First, everyone has his own reason for asking a question, and his reason may not be the same as yours. In order to discuss the question without any...

SethArb: You have made two recommendations in response to my above reply, but those recommendations have since disappeared from this thread after I read it. Your two recommendations are summarized as follows: First, “since COMA makes ‘calls’ on the market, you should inform COMA...

This is not a fair question. If you are a seasoned trader, then you know why this is not a fair question. If you are a new trader and do not know why, please so state, and I shall explain why. I always welcome comments and questions on the Crude Oil Market Analysis, as I have received many...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (2/1/07) Today’ market action followed yesterday’s forecast when COMA forecast that “technically, the market looks very bullish, as the market did not trade around the $57.00-$57.40 resistance but rapidly traded through the resistance to close above $58.00,”...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/31/07) Today is a déjà vu all over again. On Jan. 24 Crude Oil Market Analysis stated, “the U.S. oil industry agrees with Crude Oil Market Analysis, but the market does not. As a result, COMA made the right forecast of the fundamentals but still lost...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/30/07) Today’s market action followed yesterday’s forecast when the Crude Oil Market Analysis forecast that “fundamentally, the market is still buoyed by the cold weather in the short term, so the market risk remains slightly on the upside,” and that...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/29/07) Today’s market action followed Jan. 29’s Crude Oil Market Analysis when it forecast that “fundamentally, the market risk remains on the upside,” but that “technically, the market looks very weak.” The market opened Sunday higher and reached...

The sole purpose of a non-commercial to take a position is to profit from the market's directional move, whereas ideally the sole purpose of a commercial is to hedge against the risk associated with market fluctuation, as Crude Oil Market Analysis used AMR as an example on Jan. 25. Therefore...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/26/07 Part II) Today’s market action followed yesterday’s forecast, as Crude Oil Market Analysis stated yesterday that “the market does not need any particular news to move in a $1.77 range, and that “Crude Oil Market Analysis cannot determine the precise...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/26/07 Part I) PRELUDE: IN DEFENSE OF THE BULLS As soon as the market dropped by 36% from July’s high of $78.40 to last week’s of $49.90, some analysts began to feel vindicated and claim credit for their forecasts by saying, “I told you so when the market...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/25/07 Supplement) QUOTE OF THE DAY Since Crude Oil Market Analysis cannot determine the precise reason for today's market decline, perhaps the best way to describe the reason behind today's market decline is to quote former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/25/07) Today the market followed yesterday’s forecast that “it has little direction as the bulls and bears sort themselves out.” The market opened at $55.16 and continued yesterday’s rise to a high of $55.87. But the market had no direction, so it...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/24/07 p.m.) The U.S. oil industry agrees with Crude Oil Market Analysis (“COMA”), but the market does not. As a result, COMA made the right forecast of the fundamentals but still lost money. The reported refinery input is 14.9 million barrels per day, in...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/24/07 a.m.) Sell March crude at market currently at $54.40 with a stop at $55.25. A full analysis will be provided at the end of the day. Dr. Chen

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/23/07) “I have yet begun to fight.” –John Paul Jones Today is another day of heavy fighting between the bulls and the bears. As Crude Oil Market Analysis (“COMA”) observed on Jan. 19, “all these factors contribute to a battleground for the bulls and...

Crude Oil Market Analysis (1/22/07) Today’s market action followed earlier forecasts. COMA on Jan. 19 forecast that “if the market cannot stay above $54.00, it will again test and break the $50.00 support.” Also in response to a reader’s question overnight about the market action...

No. The overnight session has a probability of approximately 60% to be correct indicating the market action from 10:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. but nothing beyond, and even this 60% can be largely attributed to the news breaking out before the start of pit trading that has impact on the market for...