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Emotion has nothing to do with it. Your P/L is just an objective figure. If you do not get slightly more agressive after a loss, you will take longer and longer to get back to your highwatermark after each loss.

In order to be profitable, gains must outwiegh losses. Therefore, preceding losses must be taken into consideration. Consideration of preceeding P/L is very important. Furthermore, gains should also be accumulated at a faster rate than losses. In this regard, because we can not control the...

If the guy feels he has to explain the difference between an option and a futures contract, I'd say he should maybe taget his readers a bit more.

Without knowing the structure of the positions we are left with only guesses as to which months are going to be impacted, and how. An option can always be abandoned... whoever the buyer is.

Just some questions on the structures. By some off chance, do you know how Amaranth's positions were structured ? futures, options, exchange traded or OTC contracts, a complex combination of all of the afforementioned ? Concerning the unwinding of the spreads, would it not be plausible to...

Ok, we are obviously trading this thing farr differently. I don't bother zooming into the micro time frames ... too much noise for my longer term aproach.

Yes, fundamentals do matter alot in nat gas. Was I not clear on that when I mentioned colder weather and peaking inventories ? I have also been following the COT data and it is giving me all the more reason to be long nat gas. "Haven't seen a spike up" ? ..I know nat gas is volatile, but...

just a bit higher to break the recvent top on nat gas (daily charts) and it should look good for about 10.00 or so for Dec.

Yes, I think that leftover Aramanth trades probably has something to do with it.

Yes, of course. ... and trading FX for interest is all the more useless.

I am betting that nat gas inventories have peaked. The sesonal peak in inventories is usualy in October. Spot prices in nat gas do not correlate all that well to furures prices. .. and even if they did, spot prices could jump up to near futures prices. Though oil & nat gas are not closely...

To earn interest you need to have market exposure. Market exposure can wipe out far more than what you recieve in interest. If you are so intent on gaining interest, trade bonds, not FX.

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas rose the most since July in New York as forecasters predicted cooler weather in the Midwest will lift consumption of the furnace fuel. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPjAxeA7TF0k&refer=worldwide_news Nice way to start off the week :)

Definitely. This is one point I was thinking of discussing latter. Without going into any great deal of detail right now (I'm still a bit "tired" after the sunday lunch with my wife's parents...80% wine), yes, you can definitely control probability, regardless of an assumed random market...

"Money management" .. you're definitely headed in the right direction here. ... risk management is key in trading.

Anyone up to some comments over there ? : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=78779

"Increasing risk after a loss" ! .. a statement that makes many shitintheirpants and definitely a statement that will encourage some controversy (however the hell you spell that) and some public stoning. If this thread starts to atract some interest and comments I will endevour to explain...

Let me give you some food for thought for a NEW THREAD. One of the principles on which my system is founded upon is that "gains must be not only larger than preceeding accumulated losses, but must also be accumulated at a faster rate than preceeding losses" ... some food for thought for a...

You can call me "man" ... 100% dick & balls from what I can see downstairs :)

Hedging FX for commercial transactions is an etirely different realm from that of the speculator aiming for profits on market movements. ... Hedging for commercial purposes merrits a thread of its own, but I am nor competent nor interested in developping much in that regard.