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Prof, As a former student of yours, I need to play devils advocate for a moment. Do you know WHEN a PPF is going to occur? I know, and you taught me, what to do when a PPF occurs, but we must watch and watch and wait. So, at the end, are we not reacting to market conditions, just...

Very interesting article, Mike. Good read! Best Regards Oddi

It was not an option, as I recall correctly. If they would not have been bailed out they would have taken our economy under. I don't know who the big winner would have been, but it would most certainly would have been an advisary of ours. Best Regards Oddi

You are correct. This seems to a flaw in institutional trading in general. To get outsized returns they used outsized leverage. And when LTCM got into trouble, everybody knew it and really put the squeeze on them to the degree that they had to try to unwind their positions at a steep premium...

Think of APA as an "airbag" stop. That is why Jack calls it Additional Protective Action. So if you have never used APA, then you are effectively identifying turning points before they become patently obvious. Best Regards Oddi

I think this post gets near the bottom of things. Dennis knew he made mistakes, he admits as much in Covel's book, and he established rules to mitigate those mistakes. I think this is why he was so insistent that a good trader needs "only" to have a good set of rules and the psychological...

Fair enough, most of it is:D

Thunder, I presume that you are refering to the moon comment. There is a rather large body of TA called financial astrology. They have charts that "prove" that price correlates with certain patterns in the sky. In truth, it is merely one more way to time the market. Some traders split the...

Spike, Your chart is interesting, but what does it really and truly show? The only thing that they really and truly show is that you are able to use a set of rules to try to catch directional price movement. As traders, we have dozens of patterns that try to say that if you follow them...

Posters, Let me ask a question. When does a trend become a trend? In another way, at what point do you call a trend a trend? 1 HH HL? 2 HH HL? 20 HH HL? For those of you say there are trends. When do you call a trend a trend? Richard Dennis seemed to have no idea to the...

I see. Simplistic as I am though, I would think that any directional strategy faces risk from mean reversion. I find it interesting that Vic did not take a reduction in returns in order to control and limit the risk of ruin. That said, do think that the markets are largely accidental in...

The only thing I would add is that APA is to used when the Jokari window fails. Maybe some news intrabar causes a violent reversal or something like that. Visualize a B2B reversal and then you get an even higher red bar. That situation should be APA. That said, I cannot call myself an expert...

And I, on the other hand know next to nothing about VN, except that surf knows him personally, and that he keeps blowing up. I was going to suggest that he appears to be a mean reversionist, but I just don't know enough about how he trades. I wonder why the mean reversionists don't combine...

Thunder, My first post directly to you. Some of Dennis turtles went on to outperform him, albiet on a smaller scale. Is it a bad thing to say that some of VN's students went on to outperform him? Best Regards Oddi

To further this discussion, I have to suggest that I think LTCM tried this, and the results are in the financial history books now. Mean reversion works until it doesn't. What I mean to say is, mean reversion stategies work very well until the explosion in directional price movement that MUST...

Yeah, typing on the fly:D Please forgive me. Now back to the statement. Richard Dennis, the Turtle Jedi, says that trading is largely an accidental thing. Do you agree? Best Regards, Oddi

Agreed, both Curtis Faith, an original turtle, and the other turtles interviewed by Covel agreed that most people will be unable to withstand the psychology of randomness. Most people cannot handle being wrong most of the time. They will revenge trade, change their rules, freeze, blame the...

Infolode: A "trend" is what traders call directional price movement AFTER it has already appeared on the chart. Surf: Yes, the turtles apparently knew the truth, and traded accordingly. It is interesting that one of the most legendary trend traders would say that trading is largely hit and...

That the markets are largely random. " The single hardest thing I have to do to make people understand how I trade is to convince them how wrong I can be about things, how much of a guess it is. They think there's some magic involved and that it's not just trial and error."--Dennis Rich, The...

That is not the square of nine, that is the circle of 24. Why are you playing with these newbies, surf???:D