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I don't understand what it is about a strong stock that makes people want to short it. This stock didn't even correct when the market went down! I'd revamp your strategy if it includes picking out one of the strongest stocks in one of the strongest groups, and shorting it near all time highs...

Thanks for posting some of your qualifications. Basically I think it has become clear that Billbuild believes that he alone has the skills necessary to analyze the residential real estate market. And what are those skills? He's been a builder for most of his life he says.....an occupation...

Glad you brought that up BlueHorseshoe. I heard Ed Hyman speak recently and if I recollect correctly he said real estate was in the 5th inning. Say, I wonder if Hyman knows the correct size of a 2X4? OldTrader

Williams Lyon, Chairman of William Lyon Homes (WLS), bought 656,000 shares of common stock in the company for approximately $44 million. I presume he is not expecting a collapse in the near term. And, I presume he must be at least as qualified in real estate as Billbuild.:D OldTrader...

Frankly I'm a little tired of hearing these expert opinions issuing forth from a guy who supervises carpenters and plumbers. I'm equally tired of these childish insults regarding my qualifications, knowledge, and activities. Says a great deal about who you are and what you're about. Either...

I would rank the scenario as "possible". What makes me say "possible" is that it's equally possible that during a rising rate scenario people may have greater difficulty selling houses, and therefore the supply of rental houses "may" increase as sellers give up trying to sell. This increase in...

Exactly my point sonny: in fact, your prediction is one that you are singularly unqualified to make. But that's the nice thing about message boards....daytraders get to pontificate on all sorts of things that they know nothing about. OldTrader

A day trader with a 2 year prediction? LOL! What a riot. I'm sure your day trading gives you considerable qualifications for the real estate "predictions" that you make! But in terms of the record, I'm not sure why it's important to you that I define "bubble". I don't think we're in one...

I don't have a "definition" per se of the term "bubble". To me it's one of those things that I think I'll recognize when and if it occurs. I do think that we may be at a spot where prices will do some resting, consolidating. I'm talking in general because of course real estate is...

Perhaps you need to go read some of the various threads regarding RE if you think it has not been compared to NASDAQ or this type of decline is not being predicted. But to directly answer your question: I'm not calling this a "bubble"....you are. I'm not predicting a 20-30% decline....you...

Good start on a journal. My compliments. What these first two trades had in common is that they were large gaps which you faded. So my questions are: 1) Are you usually fading these large gaps? 2) What specifically triggered your entry after the stock had gapped? Thanks again...

Good post Cutten. I thought I'd address a few of your points. First, you're right...alot depends on how you define "crash". Alot of guys in this thread and some of the other threads have compared residential real estate to the NASDAQ in 2000. This is a point that I completely disagree...

The question here is whether this is symptomatic of the homebuilding industry in general, or whether this is more specific to DHOM in particular. My view would be that DHOM is one of the weak sisters of the publicly held homebuilding business. For instance, the latest report from D.R...

One of us is certainly confused....I agree. If I were you I'd go back and re-read some of your posts. I'd begin with the first one where you mention "Texas prairie land", then move on to the one about the 3Q that you generalize from. Based on these I'd like to thank you for the entertainment...

Exactly. Never has a top been called by so many! And as you correctly state, real estate has always been known as an inflation hedge. OldTrader

Interesting theory...the idea of an "inverse relationship" betwen revenue from land sales and it's market valuation. An example of the exact opposite is the KMart story, where real estate is carried on the books at one value, but sold at another. Perhaps you've read something about Eddie...

Glad I could be of some service in clearing up something for you. No, of course I'm not claiming that everyone who buys residential real estate is an owner occupant. In fact, I believe it's something like 5-6% of the new loans go to non-owner occupants. To one extent or another some of...

It is true that I read the Yahoo Profile which I quoted. Goes to show you should always do your own homework. For instance, you quote the 3Q of 2004 in order to make a point. However, if you go back to look at the last entire year....2003.... in the 10K filing with the SEC you will find the...

Personally I wouldn't have anything other than a fixed rate, amortizing loan. OldTrader

Look, I'm well aware of all the bear arguments. Don't know how long you've been around, but I started hearing many of these types of arguments back in the early to mid 1970's. For instance, in 1975 New York City almost went broke. It was in the news every day. Munibond rates went through...