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You're absolutely right...it's not much of a chart. Part of the problem is what SteveD mentions above, that there is no particular uniformity in the real estate "market". We don't know what a "3 bedroom house" sells for, because it sells for one thing in the suburbs, another thing downtown...

Here's a link: http://www.realestateabc.com/graphs/natlmedian.htm Probably if you spend some time on google you can track down what you want. Above shows the median price since 1968 nationwide. OldTrader

Perhaps you could help me out: Could you provide a link to this study that you claim to have made? Now, what does "randomness" mean? Does that mean that if we take a monkey, and program him with some rules that a professor thinks make sense, that he is only right 50% of the time when tested...

How does a "reverse trader" make any money if he doesn't hold for the "trend" following the "reverse"? OldTrader

I think this is the point that you miss: Every "trend" has a beginning and an end. If you detect a "trend" tomorrow and act on it, your odds of acting at the "end" are fairly low, since obviously the "end" is only one point along the continuum of prices comprising the "trend". So here's...

Let's go a step further. I submit that no one can trade the market without "trend trading". Here's what I mean by that: Let's say that you go long. Makes no difference to me how you made the decision to go long....in your case, let's say you flipped a coin. Now the price begins to move in...

What makes you think that a series of coin flips has anything to do with stock price movement? Perhaps the fact that you believe this simply illustrates your lack of ability with stocks, and perhaps indicates that you should stick to flipping coins. In terms of "when a trend will end", I...

Evidently you believe that trends do in fact exist....but only in hindsight. This is an immense improvement to the nononsense view that trends don't exist, eventhough even a cursory view of a price chart on virtually any time interval reveals an obvious trend of one kind or another. I...

Well deserved in my opinion. Congratulations. OldTrader

Cutten: The way I learned to buy property was with the idea that you "make your profit going into the deal". What this has always meant to me is that I don't bank on appreciation, rent increases, etc etc. I buy the situation as it is under market, so that my profit is already assurred...

Perhaps I was a little hard on him. Evidently you think so and I will defer to that. But do stocks like AAPL "inevitably" take a "nasty fall"? You have to hate comments like this don't you? What does "inevitable" mean? I've heard comments like that about every big stock market winner...

In the last 26 weeks Apple has only been down 4 weeks. And those have been marginal. There has been no down week in the last eight. Wall Street should start a club for all the folks that think stocks like this are a short. By the way, why don't you email Carl Swenlin, the writer of the...

What makes you think earnings growth for the builders is dependent on rising home prices? Not true at all. Large builders these days have been acquiring small local builders. This has been one element in expanding profits. Obviously the number of units sold makes a difference. General...

Pretty hard to draw conclusions from some of these charts that you post, along with the statements that you make. Prices are up, but what we don't know is for what? Are the houses the same? Bigger? Built differently? There is no doubt that San Diego has appreciated. But the comparison...

I appreciate the effort that you took to make your post, and your contributions here. OldTrader

I guess you didn't get a chance to read Toll Brothers (TOL) earnings report prior to writing this post. They release this on February 8, 2005: *************************************** The Horsham, Penn.-based builder of luxury homes said homebuilding revenue for the quarter ending January...

But the CFTC has no control over patents as they apply to futures markets...absolutely none. OldTrader

A patent does exactly that....it creates a monopoly....and therefore is definitely "anti-competitive. That's the whole point of a patent...to protect an original invention...and to provide the patentholder the opportunity to earn money for his creation prior to allowing other competitors the...

In terms of the "divergence" just remember that every time a stock reacts then goes to a new high later it will probably diverge from something. That's because indicators lag. The indicators aren't predictive. In terms of the spread, I quit playing options quite a few years ago, mainly...

Hey Pabst. How goes it? Hadn't looked at IYR in a while. That does present a different picture than the builders doesn't it? With the numbers you mention obviously there is no reason to invest in a condo as a rental. Alot of times condos are tough to pencil out anyway because of the...