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Hey qlai, you should be very cautious about how you internally store information provided by Kirk and his team. All of the information I have seen from option alpha is very elementary and misleading. In regards to the spread, why do you prefer it over an ITM Call? Your ITM back spread is very...

Usually bottoms are frantic selling with A TON of news coverage. I usually get a few facebook messages from my buddies who were long some stocks and are not to sure what to do. I don't see any of that right now. I say we got another 5%- 10% to go :)

As of Tuesday, I shorted 4 SPY Jan 18 straddles @ 22.5% IV and purchased 24 VGK straddles @ 19.2% (theta weighted the position). At the time my relative future realized volatility forecast was: SPY = 22.5% VGK = 24.1% or SPY = 17.8% VGK = 19.2% How should I delta hedge the position? For the...

Excellent call kevin!

Hmmm...I think you're throwing out some big words here which you do not understand (hence your whole paragraph made very little sence). Maybe you are rushing into this to fast? What is the first problem you are having? Can you explain in more detail?

I am sure you really enjoy the 100% ownership of the draw downs as well.

maybe tomorrow you should walk through a trade on ET. In detail. Strikes, fill price, fair value, reason for trade, evidence/research of fair value etc etc.. that should get the clock turning.

In all fairness a regression is probably not the best tool to use for this, but it's a place to start. That is not what I was implying in my message. I'm to tired to explain. Interpret it as you wish, time for 3 hours of sleep goodnight.

Create a regression with a response variable log(RV_T1/IV_T0) add some explanatory variables. That should get you started down the rabbit hole. Edit** I read "Implied / Realized volatility". For index and very liquid equities, implied vol is your best bet in forecasting realized vol. Try...

Nope, you are getting a bit mixed up. You said your strategy makes 2-3% of net liq a week. You also said you do about 40 trades a month. So if you have done 50 trades your account should be up ~10%. If your account is negative after 50 trades, your strategy is probably not as good as good as you...

Cmon dude, you have no idea if your strategy works, so you end up taking random trades. You said you have a specific strategy. If your supposed to buy when the sma 10 crosses the sma 20, and instead you buy when the sma 10 crosses the sma 15 that just proves you thought taking the second trade...

Tons of people have this "issue". You will here the same solution over and over again. But i'll try and write something a little different that will help you understand that it's not your psychology but rather naivety (if thats even a word). Lets say you have a system that you were able to...

Well you can't really "safely say" because the markets are always changing. You said the strategy makes 2-3% a week right? In that case you provably only need...a month. There are many tools you can use to test the significance. But whats also very important is to find out when the strategy...

@smallfil This is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. @DTB2 care to share the general idea of the strategies? Ps. I am surprised no responses here, usually people are eager to share their trade ideas.

When it comes to trading, psychology is a word to often mixed up with stupidity. So much money has been made selling ways to master your psychology. There are countless of threads on this forum where people are brainwashed to believe "if only I could master my psychology, I would be a great...

If you are using technical analysis to trade a linear product, with certainty, you can back test it. If it is still "too complex" then your strategy is most likely based on your instinct. Your instinct will change with experience and current mood. Start trading right now with a super small...

Yikes. Close that position asap. Learn as much as you can before you dabble in one of the hardest games in the world. Youtube will help you regarding hedging your greeks

Ask yourself this. "Would I sell the exact same condor I have on now if I had no position?" Yes = hedge your deltas No = close position

@Overnight is 100% correct, this strategy is a no go. Lets say there is a 50/50 chance in the next minute the stock will go up. How about the next minute? Well it's again a 50/50 chance and how about the 3rd minute? another 50/50? This is what is known as a martingale process. So to go up 10...

also if you are a bit intimidated by math (which is totally normal), the best way to learn is through programming. It really makes math interactive and fun. You kind of kill 2 birds with one stone (learning math and programming). R/Python/Matlab, choose one (they each have their own pros and...