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  1. TheBigShort

    How legit is options selling?

    I am pretty sure I have mentioned this a few times. The best way to learn how to trade options in my opinion is to read as much as you can from what @Kevin Schmit, @sle and @atticus/destriero @riskarb have written. They all have a good sense of humor as well which makes reading their posts more...
  2. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Here is my earnings portfolio since I started the journal.
  3. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Based on MktCap(but I guess this would be the same as liquidity) and Expected value of trade (implied move - predicted move)/implied move. Max position size is total risk < 5% of account and min position size, max risk > 1% of account. Max risk calculated as debit on flys and debit on straddles...
  4. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    My win rate has been really high since the journal inception. Only losing on 2 MS positions. However those were my biggest positions and because of that my account has entered the red. Maybe you would be more interrested in overall portfolio prformance. What was your strategy holding through...
  5. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Hey guys, found something quite cool. If you model Abs.Jump ~ Excess Vol, you get some pretty interesting results. Excess vol = 10 day vol of asset before earnings - 10 vol of industry etf. Here is the regression. However once you incorporate historical skew and revenue dispersion into...
  6. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    my desktop is good, however I am having problems on mobil
  7. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    it was -.55 earlier this morning! keep them coming des
  8. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    very nice srinir!! you got off the hook. Any names on the radar today? I got a few, but doing some more research before I post any.
  9. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Are you routing via Smart route or are you using direct route? If the latter, what are your preferred exchanges? Most of my orders are sent to CBOE with the occasional SMART
  10. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Out of MS 2.03. Account just entered negative territory since journal inception.
  11. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    This MS trade just removed 1.5% of my net liq! Made some back on CSX, AA. Closed CSX for avg of 4.08 and AA for 3.52. Still holding onto the otm calls as they are worth 0. Going to wait on MS a bit. @srinir what are you doing with this?
  12. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    CSX and AA look like big winners tomorrow! Not to much movement after numbers. PnL dominated by MS tho. Will give account update on Friday including gamma scalps on both Berry and SYK
  13. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Filled more on MS fly for 3.11, vol picking up into close
  14. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    CSX 59.5 65.5 71.5 C FLYs for 3.20 Edit. Got filled again. Avg price 3.17.
  15. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Long MS 40 45 50 C FLYs for 3.2. GL srinir! I incorporate SPX term structure into my implied move calc, so it might be a bit different than ORATS. Filled on a single, for .7 going to try and get a better entry for another few.
  16. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    what security is this forÉ
  17. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Srinir, just did a bit of digging. Over the past 10 quarters if MS releases after GS, it has an average jump of 1.8% vs 3.2% when it releases same day or before GS. Looks like a GREAT short. I am going in heavy on it. Also any particular reasoning for going long KMI?
  18. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Will be shorting vol on 3 names today after 3 pm. CSX, KMI, SBNY, AA(already short but will add). I really want to re-open a short vol position on Morgan Stanley. Most of the banks have released and there should be no surprise. Implied move is 4.25% Does anyone have thoughts about this trade...
  19. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    Wow. Took some heat on MS. Thought it might close the gap. Sold butterfly for 1.96. 33% Loss. Whipped out most of my journal gains.
  20. TheBigShort

    Earnings journal

    It can be a bit slow if more than 10 people are on it(wrote the code in 45 min) but I created this to show how random earnings can be. The data is on UAL since @srinir made a trade on it. You can download the data with the "download" button. The table with the data is at the bottom. Let me know...
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