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Out of IBM @ 3.86 UNP @ 5.10 EBAY @ 2.09 Small red day. @Magic howd you do? AA looked stellar

Yes exact same weight. Adding an ema variable does not sound like a bad idea!

Ps. Is anyone else playing around with the face app? Here is what I look like 60 years into the future! What do you guys think? Do I age like fine wine or milk (it was sunny today)?

Lots of vol after hours for IBM unfortunately not in 1 direction!

Hey jon. Calendars before a large move is very hard to model! Not only do you have term structure to consider; You also have to consider how the vol surface moves for different expirations! I am not saying it can not be done but it is beyond my current knowledge. Also the edge you would be...

Hey Adam I am not 100% sure about the question. Each variable is calculated differently. All the averages are just the mean. So the avg move or avg jump is just the mean of that last 14 moves.

This is what the straddle should look like @ 9:45. With IV for JUL19 @ 30%. GL everybody

Give it a spin! Worst case scenario is a 1% jump and the straddle price at 9.45 is just over $3

Good luck on your shorts Magic! I almost pulled trig on GPC, but decided not to just because the last 4 jumps have been very very small. Yea IBM looks surprisingly cheap. Plus they usually outpace the implied move. Front month straddle has a break even of 4%! It was so low I had to make sure...

Thanks for the support guys! Going only Long Vol today. Don't have time do research for the short vol trades. I am long the cheapest straddles on my screen

I'll respond to everyone later. I just need a little time to shake off this 8k loss.

My worst day of the year. @Magic I hope you did better then me. BAC .49 (+.32) UAL 2.00 (+.77) CSX 6.20 (-3.63) ABT 3.49 (-1.09) BK 1.44 (-.24) It was only my worst day as I had open orders on CSX that I forgot to close. When I checked my phone later in the day I was 3x my wanted size...

I hope no one shorted vol in CSX this one hurt

Gotcha, we call that a vol bet over here. Delta is when you have a directional assumption. LMK if you place any trades. GL

IV% = IV percentile? I never use those numbers. Those numbers take into consideration non event vol. I am not to sure what you mean by delta bet. It is a vol bet. I bot the straddle so either a large move up or a large move down will benefit the position. Does that make sense? My UAL trade is a...

Just waiting on BAC short 27/29 29/31 Iron Condor Edit in avg .81 BAC

BK is a great long vol opportunity. It usually out paces the implied move. Right away on my news feed I see some analysts giving a 60% rally in BK others are saying it's a value trap. There is a lot more detail if you have the time to read the reports. Main take away is, this report is...

I know! My strangle is sub $4 now. I am going to be doing some intraday research on closing the positions. I am not too sure if you have taken a look at the screener today. But we have lots of selling to do! We can finally diversify enough to get some meaningful returns. I won't have anytime to...

Out of GS @ 5.48 +.36 Out JPM @ 2.04 +.77 Edit* if you took the GS 212.5 straddle this would have been a very nice winner. Did anyone take that?

The swks trade was a play on the earnings date. I was hoping for a press release this morning. Trade is coming off first thing. Looks like a scratch