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Thanks Blue! Yea this is only playing the jump so I dont think there will be much meat left. That's great you code in Py. I am sure it's very helpful with your trading. Edit* send @oldmonk a message, I am sure he would not mind sending you some of his Py code. Last time I checked he had some...

hey guys, my friend just gave me a bunch of what seems like credible research on CBRL. It's based on Chinese pork and CBRL's exposure to it. In their previous earnings report, they stated that their guidance includes the expected pork vol, however, the recent rally has been insane! I think this...

Doing a quick check, it will only take a $10 dollar drop in the SPX for your stop to be hit. Considering the SPX has a current ATM Ivol of roughly 12, your stop will be hit every other day! That's much different than 95% win rate! That is not accounting for vega convexity! The strategy will most...

Speedo, enjoy it all you want, you have not made a dime trading. I am simply stating chart reading is a waste of time. You develop 0 skills in doing so. Hour after hour, you are staring at a picture. I would rather not see people go down that route (or they might end up like you and I would not...

LOL financial freedom? This a term used to make people do stupid things. Work hard at something you enjoy and get payed. There is a PM on this site who drives a Honda Fit and makes close to 7 figures a year. He get's up and goes to work every single day and works hard to improve. 99% of...

Ahh, my mistake it was "Tens of Thousands". But my point is, so many people are focused on chart reading rather than finding miss-priced assets. For example, a ticket scalper (a trader) does not stare at charts all day. Instead she prices fair value for the tickets and tries to buy them...

If you read the "Nothing Works" thread, you will see why no one makes money trading. But to make it clear, as @krugman25 stated, you need 1 million hours of chart time to get an edge. I think only 0.4% of people live that long!

Would someone mind helping me break down the concept of shrinkage? It might have been a little more intuitive for me if it was not about football/sports betting. "For our first factor we will look at one of the most generally reliable predictors, overreaction. We will bet on the team the line...

There are lots of data providers that offer better data than Bloomberg. The reason why Bloomberg is still around is because of the networking ability. If I want to share data with a PM at firm XYZ, I can send him BBG data because he will most likely be subscribed. When I did the BMC they said...

@Baron @Magna you should not allow people like this to ruin your site reputation. ET used to be my favourite place to learn. Aaron Brown, just joined us and I think he can bring a lot of good rep to the community. If we can implement something to clean up ET a bit, that would be great. Maybe a...

Matt, thanks for the API update. I love the new features and variables added + update to documentation. This is really making my life easier. However, would you mind explaining what the difference is between fex.., fbex.., and ffwdex..,fbf.. thanks

I can not go into detail @Philo Judeaus So you tired hedging the long gamma? Did you trade over night/before market open (This is where the majority of the vol is)? Ex earnings iv sounds reasonable. How many hedges did you get in here? I have not tried this approach so I am curious.

I guess if it's to good to be true. It usually is

Wow that's a lot of vol in algn Holy Toledo. This is looking like a 3sd move. Eek. Thank God we didnt take it. This earnings will be slow for me for several reasons. One of the main reasons is 99% of my portfolio is in an arb. That limits me to the number of trades I can take.

No trading for me today but short ALGN vol looks like it has a TON of edge. I would double check the news on this one to make sure they are not releasing some big news. The vol is ridiculously expensive! 12% move ( the highest it has ever been). I wish I had time. But I would check to see if...

hey magic I have been eating at the soup kitchen! Just been very busy and doing research on the side. I am still doing earnings trades its just recently I have not had time to post between 3 and 4 and I do not like posting my trades after the market has moved. Short V, TMO and BSX only last...

LOOL We all know who this is directed towards! I feel like this is how the standard PM to dest goes. Everyone : "Hey Dest, how do you choose your butterfly strikes" Dest : "I look at a local vol model before I flip delta and gamma. Then I see if the payoff is bimodal. If it's not I create a...

I use both the Quandl and ORATS direct. The quandl data base is historical data and has a 1 day lag. Orats API is todays data. The problem I was having with orats is some of their earnings dates are wrong (it's hard to get them all right considering the 5000 equities they look at). This was...

Shuuwee just took a look at GPC! How much was the original straddle? Yea your absolutely right. Did you see how much vol IBM had? 149 to 140 back to 149! If only that vol was one way...... Nice trading magic! Let me know what's on the radar for tonight