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Just got out @ -13.5. Intercrop spreads is getting flat so there is no anomaly on the curve anymore. Shitty trade.

I just read some opinions about the consequences of brexit on Brent. Apparently, given the current Brexit talks, the UK will be left "alone" next march tariff-wise. So any Brent importing country with no special tariff agreement will apply standard tariffs on UK crudes. It should depreciate...

trade talks with China? African Swine fever? Didn't find a satisfactory explanation. https://www.grainews.ca/daily/u-s-livestock-cme-lean-hogs-sag-on-uncertainty-over-trade-talks

I don't know, but I have been following it for sure:)

Out @ 0.5. 2 ticks gain.

Out @ 38.5. It was forming a double bottom so I prefered to get out. Still a positive trade.

Short ZM Z18/F19 @ 1. - Really weird shape when the new crop and large supplies brings the inversion(???). - Soybeans crop is getting bigger and crush is at all time high. - Seasonal window.

I still prefer the simple spread( historically the risk is greater on the fly ), but there is a reliable long seasonal trend from early september to late january on the fly.:)

The shape of H/K is directly linked to the "jump" between K old crop and N new crop. The bigger the jump is, the more you are likely to see H/K flat or even inverted, independently from the level of actual stocks. On the other side, Z/H is purely a storage and stocks play, so IMO the most...

Out @ -17.25 on MW U18/Z18. One tick gain. Definitely not what I expected...:(

Anybody knows why RBOB Gasoline is dropping after a larger than anticipated draw?

Went Long KW H19/K19 @ -12. -Near historical full carry( but VSR now ) -Near H18/K18 levels whereas Stocks to use is much smaller this year -12% + protein will be in shortage at the end of the season -Contango too deep compared to May/Jul19 intercrop spread

Following friday's debacle, MW has lost ground to Feed wheat. It's pretty much back to my entry price at 18$/T premium feed wheat.

I haven't checked , but one year ago it wasn't the case. MMs are simply posting a spread where the implieds would be . It is the case in the grains but not energy.

This one I placed it in the butterfly market.

Why natural gas forward curve so inverted right now( '18 to '21 )? I get inventories are really low but production is also at record high. Early weather forecasts for next winter are mild. Any insights about the long term picture compared to the last 5 years?

Short NG Nov/Dec/Jan butterfly @ -0.003. - This one is close to get positive which is highly unusual. It might simply be that the curve has to adjust to the last few up days in the front months. - I understand that it can end up positive in the last month or so before expiry, but we are still...

Long ZM Q19/U19 @ 0.3. -US/China Trade war may increase demand in soymeal during the coming season. Oil World says China will have to turn to US supplies of soybeans soon, but they may as well start importing more soymeal ( from Argentina most likely )instead of crushing it at home. - Low...

Long OJ U/X/F butterfly @ -0.55. - Quite low. -Weird curve for the season. - Hurricane lottery ticket.

No. I don't use such protections. For instruments that usually explode when they invert( Robusta ), I put a hard stop on the calendar spread. By the way, you can trade calendar spread options on CBOT, some are fairly liquid I think.