Search results

FundSeeder is the result of the acquision of what used to be RapaCapIntro, of which I was a member. At that time, the service was well managed, and I got to know the CEO and the site developers/quants through email correspondence and some coloboration. Now that the ownership has changed, the...

Numerous studies of brokerage accounts demonstrate that the vast majority of day traders lose money. The longer the period, the smaller the survivor rate. The frequently floated figure is that some 80% to 95% of daytraders fail.

Cool. I've designed and developed my own ATS from scratch (I am a software engineer and a trader), and have read quite a few books on systematic trading. I look forward to reading your book.

Oh, I've just looked at your profile. Are you Robert Carver?

Ok, thanks. Well, keep us updated on the developments. You have an excellent trading record. Is your trading systematic/automated, or discretionary? Unlike you, my participation in FS is mostly about incubation.

Thanks for the detailed report. I am a FundSeeder user, too. Question: it looks like you are rated #2 in the leadersboard. Has FS approached you with the offer to manage seed capital yet?

Yes, the OP needs to relax the requirement that the bet size is fixed at the size of the account. Once this requirement is dropped, we can talk about Kelly, optimal F, leverage space, Sharpe, mean-variance, growth-optimality, probability of the shortfall, risk aversion, common utility functions...

This is not quite right, either. Your calculated expectancy is positive, while the "intuitive" expectancy is negative (i.e. a near certainty of losing your entire account, given sufficiently many spins). The actual expectancy in this game is a function of the number of spins. The OP wants to...

I don' understand. Why are you not accounting for the probability of a loss?

How did you come up with 15% gain after 5 spins? A very simple simulation shows that on average, after 5 spins, assuming no compounding, you'd make about 4%, not 15%. And after 50 spins, the average is now a loss of about 9%. Here is the code (Java): import java.util.Random; public class...

The average profit is $46 per trade, right? Does this take commissions into account? If not, your total net profit figure would probably be cut in half.

Is that from the MDP 3.0 feed, or from FixFast feed? And which timezone are these timestamps in?

Can you identify a specific time window and the instrument where you observe the irregularity? I can check it on my end.

Tag 346 is the number of orders at the given price level. I can see a number of legit cases where this quantity can change by a number of greater than 1. Foe example, consider that the top of the book is 100.00 bid, 100.10 offer. Suppose there are 5 orders to buy at 100.00, each for 20...

Perhaps an easier thing to quantify is not the success, but the reciprocal of it, the failure, and more specifically, the probability of the failure to produce return above 0, or above some other reference return. The lower that probability, the lower the risk of failure, and thus the higher the...

INTJ

With regards to the position size limits, they are set by the exchanges and regulators, and depend on the product liquidity. For example, the ES position size limit is about 100,000 contracts, from what I can remember. With regards to the day trader rule, you need to specify which one you refer...

I think their plan is that eventually the economy recovers, and at that point, the quantitative easing by central banks can end.

3/98 it is. This is 7th grade algebra. Not sure why we need a "guru" to solve this problem.

You can trade futures in such a way that your leverage is 1:1 (i.e. no leverage). It's all about position sizing. For example, if your account is 100k, and you trade a single ES future contract, the risk/reward/leverage would be roughly the same as trading the underlying stock index SPY with...