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real variables vs. policy variables. In the very long run, the U.S. will only continue it's dominance through the three real sources of growth-labor, capital stock and technology. We got immigrants. We have plenty of capital stock (we're kinda past that point...)....so it comes down to...

That neoclassical BS is outdated. Game theory does a good job of showing the error in such reasoning....free markets allow for higher average payoffs in most, but not ALL cases.... Also, the long-term growth of a country is based on 3 variables-labor, capital stock, and technology...

still doing research on the best short candidates....covered my ASTI short today.....Too much buying pressure, gonna wait for some relief

^Value investing, a la Benjamin Graham, made sense in the 50's. Stocks in the S&P don't trade below their real Net Asset value anymore. The market is much more efficient. 95% of a securites return can explained by it's sector, style and market cap. DCF modeling is stupid. It just makes you...

I agree with the diagnosis, but not the solution. Liquidity isn't the issue, it's a symptom. There has to be a complete, systemic overhaul of the way financial institutions model risk. The market has to sort out the mis pricing of risk related to debt on its own. Injecting liquidity is not going...

value player's are idiots. They totally ignore the time value of money, for one. Second, they totally ignore reflexivity of the market, a la Soros, i.e. investors actions can change fundamentals. Third, they give into data mining to support their conclusions-low p/e stocks did well in the...

I have zero sympathy for rich Americans that will be screwed over by a global meritocracy. I feel bad for ugly geeks that don't get the honor of exploiting their intelligence, simply because of lack of access.

sorry, deflation should be better defined. Asset deflation and price inflation....i.e., a real decline in asset values and nominal price increases.... Really, really, not a good thing. I know my folks use the equity in their home to make purchases. Less equity + higher prices will lead to...

Depends on our leadership. Hopefully no protectionism, but with a democrat to restore our image. Market wise, we could have a long period of "dead money"-I give it a 7.5....I think were in for some long term deflation in asset prices... Real economy wise-a 5. We will get through it.

I think we might be entering a secular bear market. Which sucks for me (I'm long bias in my portfolio). And I'm generally bullish long term on equities, having been schooled on loss aversion, the equity risk premium puzzle, and a bunch of other academic crap. But I'm scared. American wealth...

I have to write a research paper on one aspect of the modern Chinese Economy for an econ class. Being an aspiring trading guru, I'm really interested in the Chinese stock market-particularly it's inefficiency and state controlled aspects, and the implications for outside investors...

I have a question-do you guys have any formal education? A lot of you sound like hicks...stocking up on cans... Study something called "loss aversion" and "myopia" goodbye.

statistics/econometrics probability theory/stochastic processes-particularly any course which focuses on monte carlo and boot strap simulation (which means understanding calculus 1-3 and ordinary and partial differential equations) I find game theory useful in general, and taking courses...

I'm long Japan in my very long term holdings (IRA)...I figure that there is going to be a positive black swan at some point, with all negative sentiment factored in.

I'm long FXP (double short China ETF) and SKF (double short financials)

Anybody know what qualifies as work experience for the CFA? Accounting, for example? Is it worth getting a CFA level 3 to become a card holder?

oh yeah, I never claimed to be an expert prop trader. Did you even read that link? Second-I have some more intelligent index style strategies involving options, but only for insurance purposes. I'm not talking about anything revolutionary, but sometimes less is more. In fact, most active...

Dimensional Fund Advisors is based around that exact model-charging a management fee for managing passive investments...you're paying for their wisdom that markets are efficient...and that you can tilt returns only by increasing your small cap and low price-to-book exposure. They're the most...

What if invested their money in index funds and took a 1% management fee?

yeah, I'm not a fan of the econ department here. anyhow, I don't have a trust fund or anything, but I have a large extended family with plenty of money to lend if I have a valid business pan. I wonder if I could become an asset manager through managing their wealth?