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Yeah, I'm always interested in Japan. It's just that everything there seems to be dead money. They're still in a liquidity trap, more or less, and the investor confidence in commercial real estate cratered in the 1980's and STILL hasn't come back. There have been so many false starts, where real...

Don't trade, and if you do, don't take advice from people here. Most are idiots.

lol, I took money and banking.

jesus....talk about a short squeeze... PEIX up 10.19% (still down 66.12% from where I shorted) CAL up 38.2% (still down 59.7% from where I shorted) FULT up 14.23% LULU up 14.14% All the crap is starting to jump. I'm still holding BIDZ short. It's gotta crater sooner or later, despite...

web 2.0 communities all did better than that. Exactly as decision making theory would predict. An expert opinion is NOT superior to the aggregate opinion of enthusiasts. We all face the same uncertainty. An individual can also do much better because they don't have to remain compliant. We...

I'm thinking that now is the time to do some deep value hunting. Finally. Until recently, multiples were still inline with averages, and earnings were at all time highs. With margins shrinking due to rising inputs, along with contracting multiples, we're going to start seeing some deep value...

Not trying to be too arrogant, but I don't think people who predict individual moves in a stock 2 weeks out know what they're doing. Especially when they bet the farm on it. More like gamblers to me. It's funny though, you can really separate the real from the fake on here.

Relative strength is not a new phenomenon. I pay attention to relative strength, even though I don't believe in TA patterns.

I said generally. Obviously, those slight neg. days seriously affect the geometric mean.

^yeah, but I'm more worried about a sell off in EEM as a whole. Even if commodities rise, EEM producer p/e multiples could seriously contract... Japan and Australia might be safe havens.

^yep. You got it. This might very well be a market micro structure thing, not an economic one. Still, I think these guys are operating on the same global fears as me, and trying to get out early. So yeah, big deleveraging leading to a two way squeeze. I'm gonna re balance, but not close my...

^yeah, that's actually a really, really good insight. My longs and shorts, taken individually, have above market betas and even higher individual risk factors (in the long term, I'm a very strong believer in this strategy, as you profit off of others loss aversion and reap an asymmetric...

^I hold between 30-40 positions, long and short included. However, this was not a case of idiosyncratic risk acting up. All of my long EEM positions were down MORE than my shorts, which were still down, just not nearly as much. I've never seen a spread of this magnitude. Generally, I churn out...

My market-neutral strategy failed today. I almost never give up a significant amount during a down day, as my shorts generate enough alpha to more than compensate 90% of the time. Today, I'm down as much as the broader indexes. My global stagflation strategy, with a near zero beta, is...

^I have no beta risk...so I don't care. Not that anyone cares about my "expert" opinion, and they shouldn't, since this is the internet- But, here it is- Why would you have any market exposure right now? Even the best quant funds stopped picking market direction correctly in the sub prime...

That's my play. Global stagflation. Short anything that relies on raw inputs to maintain margin. Long the inputs and the technology firms trying to improve efficiency and discover new inputs. Simply put, there is more demand than capacity for additional output. Money supply growth is simply...

Stock trader, you have no methodology. You picked heads (momo stocks), and you were right. It doesn't mean anything. You don't have any special ability or methodology, just the ability to get lucky like anyone else.

Except that Goldman get the cream of the crop. They offer better compensation, and hire much smarter people. I have the edge of currently having friends at pretty much all of the Ivies + Standford. The super smart physics and math majors always get scooped up by Goldman or BX if they don't get...

yep, most financial advisers are retarded. They help clients slightly underperform the market, what a service. They lack any edge, by definition, as they all use the same retarded allocation strategies and the same myopia.... Also, why does everybody think the fed has the power to control...

There's tons: -A 4 sigma down day in FXI....China could have a sudden massive down day around or post Olympics. Non linear dynamics at work. -The U.S dollar could face a speculative attack -EEM as a whole could suddenly get hammered, as global interest rates rise to combat negative real...