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Here's Eclectica's monthly report for 12/2009. It's just the monthly update, not the longer "quarterly thoughts". See attachment.

I thought there's some cross-section between the below and some of the ideas posted in the thread, so here goes a couple of relevant paragraphs from Eclectica Capital's December 2009 report:

IMO (just my 2 cents), the entry points aren't as crucial as position sizing and avoiding allowing big losing positions to become "too big". Money management is much more important than figuring out what direction the trend is. Some traders seem obsessed in figuring out the perfect entry...

You realize the "Time Magazine Person of the Year" is not necessarily an award or recognition of any type of accomplishment? "for better or for worse, ...has done the most to influence the events of the year." Time Magazine chose Bernanke because they believed he like none other coined the...

I remember people were applauding Paulson, even here on ET. The applause didn't last very long, until it was clear global markets wouldn't stop their tailspin and suddenly Iceland, HypeReal and AIG went bust thanks to the chaotic nature of Lehman's demise. Paulson wanted to make an example out...

Bernanke must have one of the worst jobs one can imagine. What does he make a year, 190k? And I take it that is gross, before taxes. Far too little IMO considering the amount of traveling, stress and insults he is exposed to.

The HSI (index) gapped down 25% on October 26th. From Oct 1 through Oct 31 the HSI lost a total of 44% peak to trough. The N225's low (index, not future) on crash day was 15% below the previous close. Unfortunately my N225 futures data only starts at 1988, maybe somebody else here has access...

It's all relative I guess. Compared to Turkey or North Africa I am sure the Greek live fairly comfortable :cool:

Axel "The Ax" Weber will be hiking rates until Club Med is back in the stone age :cool:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6snLwsTq1k&feature=related Dec 2008: American revolution, troops on the streets, tax revolts, riots "probably starting in 2009"

IMO this is too general a statement to be correct. Timeframe is key.

Even if the property price "only" drops 30% one can lose 100% of the principal investment if one employs any significant amount of financing/leverage. IMO, (if leveraged) real estate is by nature not any safer/more risky than any other leveraged investment.

Traders have been using volatility based position sizing since the dawn of the times (well almost). It's not exactly a rocket science.

All the big systematic trend-following funds I follow had years of -20% to maybe - best case - breakeven in 2009. Transtrend Tulip Trend Eckhardt Brummers Lynx MAN AHL Winton Dunn Bluetrend Abraham etc. I can't think of any one big fund which had a blow-out year in 2009, which is...

Covel is spot on and you couldn't be more wrong.

Equities only represent 10-20% in most big trend-following programs allocation wise. Bonds, energy, metals had a couple of weeks with action followed by wild counter-moves, detracting from performance for longer-term traders. Agricultural commodities were especially disappointing. Interest...

The question is not if there is a "50% of a continuation" but the question really is what is the expected profit over large number of samples? If I can go long stocks that make new 52 week highs I may lose money on 75% of the trades but the 25% winning trades could be so profitable that they...

Anyone remember those Chinese car crash tests? Here's one at 40 mph: <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/g5SRyG6UR2A&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess"...

A typical property of mean reversion strategies is that while it may feel great as you're picking up nickles in front of a steamroller one should prepare for losing one's hand occasionally :cool:

Stay out of (long) VXX positions unless it makes a new XX week high (see data I posted). Buy on strength, not on weakness.