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The classic misunderstanding between probability and expectancy of an outcome. True, except when they don't. And that's when trend followers clean up.

Nowhere did I say mean reversion "doesn't work". Also, I didn't try to make a scientific argument - simply stating the irony market history can offer in hindsight.

Niederhoffer embraced the idea that he had an impeccable edge in determining when a certain market went down/up "too far" and then tried fading the move. This worked great 99 out of 100 times, unfortunately every once in a while shorting volatility turns into a terrible "deer in the headlight"...

You've seen one Rogers interview you've seen them all.

Look at historic charts. The USD dollar has been pronounced dead half a dozen of times, and then it rallied. This time may be different but then again maybe this is for real. I'm long a bunch of futures reflecting a bullish USD stance with stops 5-6% away from current levels (US Dollar index...

Why not move to China? Looks like its the place to be? :cool:

In Poker, the sharks feast on the "fish" :cool:

Except with a short timeframe (couple days?) I am not sure why today is such a great time to buy. Keep firm stops in place. I just got stopped out of a for longer term long positions (YM, TSE60) that I've held for months. Been a good ride but maybe the party is close to over, who knows. I'd...

If the Germans had balls they should simply ask the Greek for territory in return. E.g. Corfu or Crete :cool: For Spain the Germans would accept Mallorca as payment, and for Portugal Madeira would certainly be acceptable.

Times can't be so bad... there's still more people growing lawn in their backyard than there's people growing potatoes and cabbage instead :cool:

The EUR zone countries (aka "Germany/France and a couple of insignificant nations") will bail out Greece until the bitter end. The Brits must love it. Downing Street at night is echoing "told you so" and then a couple of laughs.

I think (just my 2 cents) what Soros is talking about is that low/negative interest rates can serve as a catalyst for bubbles, with gold being a potential target. The way I understand it Soros didn't say Gold has to crash tomorrow. He said it may attract more and more hot money, making it the...

These journalists should take a reading comprehension course. Where does Soros say he expects gold to tumble overnight?

Prechter at it again: http://www.cnbc.com/id/35086130 Ironically he only compares the current technical situation to 1987, 2000 and 2007. What about 2004 when he was screaming fire at the top of his lungs?

IMO a lot of the blame should be directed at our parents. The parents that raised the children born in the 60s-80s are the ones to take a hard look in the mirror. Did they teach their kids enough about the value of education, entrepreneurship, hard work, personal financial planning and...

Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. The historical correlation (monthly changes, 1973 till today) is "only" -0.35. There have been periods of dollar strength with gold gaining in value and vice versa.

You certainly don't want to compare the intellect of grown ups in individual households with that of 10 year old children that get force fed like French corn ducks. If I bring a couple of bottles of Vodka to a party and some morons kill themselves driving home drunk, who's to blame? It's...

What a bunch of nonsense. Bernanke printed money that's why households don't have money left? Bernanke doesn't control their insane personal spending habits does he.

Some could argue the economy has already collapsed -- considering global trade of physical goods is/was off 20-25%. That is a rare collapse by any historical measure. There's ways to go between an economic fallout and anarchy/war/loss of ownership/democratic rights.

Your insults directed at a poster who obviously knows 10x as much as you expose you as a piker and complete amateur. Welcome to my ignore list, fool.