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Why not outright disown the rich? If I recall correctly the Germans have a history there :cool:

Note he doesn't list (low/negative) real interest rates as a driver for gold. A big mistake IMO.

More red than his previous 1000 alerts? If the dollar will collapse with absolute certainty, why bother buying gold? Why not short the dollar outright? Or buy long-dated, far out of the money put options. The payoff will likely be much much bigger.

Just look at the assets under management of the big trendfollowing funds that Covel listed above and you will see that VN's assumption (that more money was lost than made for trendfollowing clients) is ridiculous. The biggest funds are trading many billions since years, and averaged 15-20%...

He didn't test it on all kinds of market prices. He tested it on equity index prices only as far as I remember (from his book "Practical Speculation"). He then argues because it (autocorrelation as a means of trend detection) doesn't work on equities it can't work on anything else. AFAIK he...

MAN AHL (packaged in Athena Guaranteed) 20 years of returns. 14% annualized ROR% (net after fees, closer to 20% excluding incentive fees). Max DD 21%. These are absolutely mindblasting risk adjusted returns. Hard to call this luck or a statistical artifact, especially since VN started...

I don't think one can ever scientifically prove a trading methodology will make money forever into infinity because we're always "just" looking at past data. In pratical terms there is a simple but elegant solution to such problems (IMO): Reduce the allocation to a respective system by X% if...

His arguments are overly broad in that they can by used against ANY potential trading approach. Global macro, value investing, merger arbitrage, intraday scalping etc. I see NOTHING in Niederhoffer's arguments that casts any doubt on Trendfollowing specifically. If anything, his arguments...

Negative returns to the public in commodities and currencies? Is he smoking crack? Clearly trying to dissect Niederhoffer's opinion on trendfollowing is a waste of time. Niederhoffer is way too focussed on stocks and equities. The time is better spent backtesting 25 years worth of data...

Can't blame him. It appears he has very loyal investors throwing money after him :cool:

AMZN & MSFT spoiling the long telegraphed Oct market crash? :cool:

You should have drawn a plan for this situation BEFORE you started trading.

Sounds like a test balloon for further stimulus :cool:

Not looking to buy for speculation/investing. Just for living in it :cool: I don't currently live in the UK but after another major leg down in Sterling I believe a nice country home would be quite interesting (for me). I don't know how low Sterling can go should it drop from here but IMO...

I'll get busy looking at UK real estate once sterling drops below $1.50 :cool:

At least Sterling is finally taking it on the chin after the huge short squeeze over the last couple days.

Markets don't need the support of fundamentals if there are enough frenzied buyers or sellers :cool:

With that type of "death knell" argument VN can kill the discussion about any type of trading methodology: Global Macro, Value Investing, Short Term Trading, Carry, Merger Arb, Fixed Income Arb. Simply argue the results are a statistical artifact and tainted with survivorship bias and POOF end...

I just read them (Faber, Schiff, Shedlock etc.) for entertainment and out of curiosity. I'd never follow some talking head's investment advice or opinion. They help you get into a position, but how do you know when to get out when the trade starts going against you? Feels like buy and pray to me.

Link?