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Arguing obligations to your own citizens equal national debt is quite a stretch IMO.

The US national debt is very payable. It's currently less than 100% of GDP plus there is a lot of room to increase the taxation basis (compared to other G7 nations).

A German car going for 100k EUR in Europe goes for $100k USD in the States, i.e. the Dollar punishes the car manufacturers outside of the US, not US customers.

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The problem with all these 400% and 1000% predictions is: when do you fold your hand and accept you're wrong? I appears to me many just have upside targets but no exit strategy for the adverse scenario. When do you sell gold? When it drops to $900? $800? $700? When do you know you're wrong...

Yes things can go up and down. If that was the point of this thread then there is no disagreement :cool:

Some highlights of Prechter here: http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Prechter/ I love the June 2003 one: "Dow is headed to 4000" :cool:

Prechter should have taken up surfing instead of financial markets. He's eternally looking for that big wave "down" :cool:

$10k gold until when? 2011 (10 years after the 2001 bottom, parallel to the parabolic 1970-1980 rise) or e.g. 2040? $10k would be an approx. 7% annual nominal appreciation from today until 2040, certainly feasible.

Japan's manufacturing got clipped in the last decade, by the Asian tigers and China. Their percentage share of global manufacturing dropped while the US' remained stable. The popular "US manufacturing was cut in half" story is a myth.

It was not a price dictated by supply and demand. It was at $35 because the US government kept it there. Thus the analogy of today to the early 70s is not a very good one.

Technical analysis for DX Index:

If the "Strong currency = best basis for jobs and economic growth" thesis was correct then soon Spain, Portugal, Italy Greece and Ireland will be economic powerhouses. Is capital flowing to Spain? To Portugal? To Ireland? Because of the strong Euro?

Did you look at the performance since the peak of the market Oct 2007? There was no "massive decoupling" to speak of so far. All the markets you list above rallied a lot form the March bottom, but they also dropped a lot farther from their 2007 highs percentage wise. The SP500 has actually...

Speculative capital as in stocks or currency trades? Or foreign direct investment. Big difference.

I agree that Roubini is wrong with the lending aspect, but the point is still valid. You don't necessarily need insane amounts of PB leverage for this to make sense. I would be surprised if not only foreigners use the Dollar as the short half for their currency pairs, a lot of US owned...

Based on the above, I'd say your name fits you quite well :cool:

You seem to enjoy spamming Marketsurfers articles: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2614822 How are you doing, Surf? :cool:

http://www.elitetrader.com/ch/transcripts/marketsurfer_chat.cfm Andre (Apr 2, 2003 12:09:28 PM) Ok, after all that, today, we welcome David Goodboy to the Elite Trader chat room. You may have heard him a few years back as a daily commentator/stock picker for the Infinity/CBS nationally...

You re-enter when the previews bulls declare this rally is over and its time to sell: * Laszlo Byrini * Barton Biggs * Anthony Bolton