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I thought the middle class is bankrupt and is heavily indebted. If the Dollar is being destroyed the middle class will therefore make out like bandits as they can repay their trillions in household debt with worthless paper money. In a hyperinflation scenario the big losers would be...

You have to remember Germany comes from high taxes over the last 15 years. America comes from (relatively) low taxes. If you have money or you are en entrepreneur, taxes are terrible in Gemany. If you're poor, Germany is great.

And on the flipside to mean reversion you have reflexivity. A strong move in one direction can bring out forces that enforce and strengthen the move. E.g. a weak market can lead to more selling, and more selling and more selling (and vice versa for a stock bubble), killing a few leveraged...

How many bottoms were declared in nat gas the last couple of weeks/months? Too many to count. Now this pig is down for the count again? I am not surprised at all.

I read both of VN's books, Practical and Education. He's an incredibly smart and astute guy and I agree with many of his findings and opinions, many are hard to argue with. Just not all of them. The criticism that VN blew up comes from a very simple fact: He predicted that all major trend...

Why don't you post your precious little thoughts in your own thread rather than littering his journal with the above garbage?

Stocks have always gone up and down with the market, this is nothing new. People want the one hot stocktip, that's why they watch bubble vision. They don't want to think "what's the trend of the overall market and what are the strongest/weakest stocks?" they want to think "what stock is hot and...

I don't care if something is a bubble as long as I can ride it up and down. Bubble spotting is a futile and painful exercise in trading, that's why it is non-sense. Trust me, I will be completely unemotional folding my cards when this pig blows up and heads south and I will go all out short...

People prefer to listen to non-sense like "It's a bubble or "The coming crash will be huge" rather than simply look at what price is doing, set a stop, go long/short and let them market take their positions out at at a small if it decides to turn south. Big potential upside with limited...

There you go, I remembered correctly. Peak was $2.5bln = rather insignificant by today's standards.

Buffet has become the victim of style drift. Why a value investor would insure high yield and stock index risk is beyond me.

The equity curve of 3% AUDUSD leveraged 10x then at some point looks very "Madoff" like: an exponential graph that suddenly implodes :cool:

Henry managed $2bln at his peak as far as I remember. Henry used to be big in the 90s. Today's hand full of big funds manage $5-20 bln each, dwarfing Henry. The top funds' 2008 performance made 10x the money Henry ever lost in his entire career, and then some. Henry is the posterchild of the...

The same hypothetical argument can be used against Global Macro or any other strategy. All the losing funds were closed (Tiger etc.) Who can we be sure that investors over the last 30 years actually made money with Global Macro? Maybe global macro is overall a losing strategy? Maybe investors...

Simply check the assets under management in the managed futures industry in the 80s and 90s, then compare to the 2000s. Then look at the performance in the 2000s. The aggregate performance in the 2000s is anywhere between 60-100%. That profit alone is bigger than any POTENTIAL losses in the...

I don't see how the banks benefit from a devalued currency? The banks have trillions in outstanding loans. If the Dollar becomes worthless then the banks are being payed back with worthless paper. Main Street wins, Wall St. loses.

Why don't you take the 10 biggest TF funds, and analyze their future returns and AUM over the next couple of years (so you don't get fooled by hindsight bias). That should answer your question. I personally see NO WAY the total net AUM return of all TF funds can be negative. There certainly...

Once Japan unravels there will be plenty of time to enter the trades speculating against the bonds/curreices. I'll patiently wait for a downtrend to establish itself.

What exactly are you looking for. Scientific proof that guarantees profitability into the infinite future? All these exercises prove is that markets were inefficient in history and one could have exploited that. Any trading approaches future sustainability can be questioned. Will value...

Is this the Efficient Weather Hypothesis? :cool: