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The problem in Spain is that in many regions newly built properties coming to the market are cheaper (!) than existing, resale properties. It appears to me that many sellers haven't really been forced into liquidation yet.

Here are long term charts of back-adjusted front-month future prices (not spot, which I don't have available unfortunately) of sugar and wheat. Still it puts the horrific "multi-decade high" of sugar into perspective:

Wheat recently hit multi-decade lows. How come you never posted a thread on that?

I think we agree on many things, just two additional notes: * Premium goes up if the market expectation for bigger volatility increases. This is true for sharp rallies as well as on sharp downturns. Look at the VIX after the 1994 sideways grind. The SPX went from 450 to the 800s in 1997 while...

Premium prices skyrocket on big upward price swings. You may keep your bet size small to minimize potential losses, but in turn you limit your potential profits should your hopes for a 10 sigma event eventually come to fruition. I'd love to see a theoretical backtest for your "risk 3% premium...

If you look at the last couple of decades of market history (not just equities), using stops may have underperformed buy and hold on an absolute return basis, but not (!) on a risk adjusted basis. That's a key finding IMO, but that's just me.

Trust me, I am not happy to hear about losses, but I believe we were talking exactly this topic numerous times all through the summer: about closing out losing trades before they get too big! You can over-analyze the economy all you want, it won't help you if you blow out your account before the...

Well excuse me but what remaining short positions could those possibly be? Weren't you screaming "SELL THIS RALLY" and "DOUBLING DOWN ON SOME MORE FAZ RIGHT HERE, THIS IS A BUBBLE!!!!" on every 25 handle up move since 750 in the SPX, before we moved up 400 points? Unless you are trading...

Not to worry, Spain and Germany have a deep-running history of friendship & cooperation :cool:

Look up a bunch of historic charts and see if stops would have helped. Blackstar Funds put out an excellent paper on the subject of volatility based stops on individual equities.

Why over-analyze the economy when you can use a stop-loss on your long positions? Once the market implodes again the exits take care of themselves.

If you don't like the position right now, just hit the sell button and buy on a break through to new highs. You take a couple % loss now eliminating the risk of a bigger loss, while keeping the door open for big gains on the upside, should the rally continue at some point.

He personally made $350m in 2007 according to AR, therefore one can assume his funds had a positive year.

You're wrong. Tepper was down 25% in 2008 and up 120% in 2009. See http://online.wsj.com/media/wsj_TEPPERA091220.gif

You don't have to save files anymore. Simply click the "use/store settings on server" option in the FILE menu and TWS will download your settings from any computer you login from.

Too bad they can't eat their newly bought gold bullion :cool:

Ah the good ole' "Monday always gaps up higher" game :cool: <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/vIMwMsY0ndo&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess"...

The complicated thing is that your explanation makes too much sense and it is lacking an evil conspiracy theory to rip off the poor small retail trader :cool:

I wouldn't look at the EUR as an indicator of imported inflation. The biggest exporters to the US are Canada, Mexico and China. The EURUSD could goto 2.00 tomorrow (all else equal) and it wouldn't have much impact on US inflation.

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