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Well, as in most markets, oil price is determined "at the margin". And it seems that those last few barrels of demand which determine price "at the margin" are nowadays controlled by funds (speculators). Commercial oil demand is inelastic, because there are no immediate substitutes for oil...

$60/bar long-term? For exploiting Golf of Mexico deposits? I really don't know WHERE people get their numbers from! In truth, the market price of crude oil is completely decoupled from and independent of production costs, which average about $6 per barrel for non-OPEC producers and $1.50...

Here's another take on the issue of US gov intervention in the stock market: http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf

The entity I have in mind is ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), PPT etc. Depending on the market, probably masked behind some "Carribean funds". All I'm saying is that governments can and do intervene in the markets. In forex (where it's a daily phenomenon), in bonds and most probably also in...

local, I think it's quite obvious that they do it to create/maintain the "wealth effect" and keep US consumers spending. The US did it by creating asset bubbles (stocks, bonds, houses etc). The objection ofcourse would be that some benefit much more from this.

I wonder what Goldman was doing today...

guy, I quote from your page: "The reason, I believe, that day traders favor the ES is because of the smaller contract value (5 times smaller) than the SP. This allows small traders the ability to scale in and out of trades and implement trading strategies that would not otherwise be available...

FORGET NYMEX emiNY QM, trade the REAL contract at IPE (symbol @ IB is COIL) It's for Brent, not WTI Light sweet crude oil

Gringinho, there's strong evidence that the oil price nowadays is set by speculative capital. IMO the single biggest factor was US role: not for increasing its consumption, but bec of its insistence to keep stockpiling oil; filling the SPR to 100% capacity (and commercial stockpiles, now at...

I've been saying it for YEARS, that traders should press CME to use same ticksize for ES and SP (apparently they resist, so that floor traders can arb risk-free between ES/SP) This is THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT issue with ES for several years (since daily range collapsed, i.e. late 2003)...

Off-topic for bonds, but if LOOP goes offline, wouldn't it necessarily REDUCE oil imports into the US (create a bottleneck). Freeing this spare production to the rest of the world market? Although LOOP going offline could give BigOil a pretext to increase price of end products (gasoline...

It's my understanding that any damage in pipe infrastructure or LOOP will slow down / inhibit imports of crude oil to US. And btw, US is not consuming all those imports, just stockpiling most of them, which is why both SPR and commercial crude stocks are at multi-year highs, DOUBLE the 5yr...

Why? I don't understand the usefulness of polls on short-term market direction, especially on SPX (other than perhaps as a sentiment indicator). PS: My answer would be, "I don't know" where it'll be in 2 weeks.

I didn't see anyone of those posters, who claim that oil can only go higher, attempt to address the facts of short-term (next 6-12 months) and medium-term (5yr) supply-demand. The reality is that, the huge run-up in oil prices over last 2yr was mostly due to big stockpiling of reserves,by...

I agree. It's quite unbelievable how many people will simply REFUSE to look at the FACTS. Just the facts please! 1/ US 2005 demand FLAT (+0.3%) Latest report by American Petroleum Institute (26-Jul-05): "Total domestic deliveries, a key measure of demand, rose just 0.3% over the level...

I assume you know that China's oil imports were DOWN -1.2% YoY for the first 5 months of 2005. Andy Xie (Morgan Stanley chief economist for Asian region) argued back in June-2005 that Asian demand is falling fast and said that oil price could collapse soon. (...

Jay, since you work in the oil industry, would you say that a temporary disruption due to weather (as long as it's not a catastrophic once-a-decade-event) would be significant, given that 1/ the fact the US commercial crude oil stocks are at FIVE (5) YEAR HIGHS of 320mil barrels (DOUBLE the...

"Just follow the money" As long as you agree with the rest of the "funnymental case".

This oil bubble, driven by WallStreet speculation in the futures markets, is dependant on media misinformation to keep going. Oil stocks are at 5yr highs, rising every week. Over the next 6-12 months a lot of new production capacity will come online (not really needed short-term, but will...

Or people may finally wake up to the conjob of ES tick being 0.25 and either pressure CME to change it to 0.1 This is even more imperative today, with ranges shrunk to 1/3 of those when emini-SP was introduced!!!