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Volatility has not been that bad over the last couple of years. But recently with indexes sitting near the top of their ranges, there isn't much fear or greed in the market. That is when other market players make irrational decisions and it becomes easier for traders to make money.

I would agree. There are two type of probabilistic edges, one that is a 'sure thing' kind of edge, of making money over the long run. Think edges the banks have or the casino has. Then there is the 'maybe' type of edge, that the rest of us have to rely on. These types of edges will only...

A system (lets call it system A) might average 50% a year, with a variance of 50%, so returns fall between 0% and 100% a year (with 99% confidence if market conditions holdup) System B might average 50% a year with a variance of 25%. So returns fall between 25% and 75% for System B. My...

Yes. I agree. You only know you had an edge over the back data or in the past. And you might have an edge going forward (if the market continues to suit your strategy). Trading systems are not like robust roulette wheels, which are in effect holy grail trading systems for the casino, as...

For something systematic to work every year it has to generate lots of trades. A low trade system will just have too much variance in returns. Something that generates lots of trades will also generate lots of transaction costs. A retail trader doesn't exactly have the lowest transaction...

I have back tested my system extensively however that is no guarantee of success going forward. If the markets are like they have been in the past i will have a chance of making money, if they change too much i wont. Hopefully they change slowly enough i can still eek out some good profits...

You can only show that in the back test for the system.

Traders are prisoners to market conditions, you can get years which are ok for trading and years which are excellent. In hindsight you can always pick a market that was good to trade in the last 12 months. But if your focus is SIFs or FX and they ain't moving much there is not much you can do...

All posts are welcome. However i have a way of trading that suits me, it may or may not make money in the long run, who knows. But im going to stick to it.. any money lost now will be negligible as i have cut back size considerably and have no plans to increase size unless i book some...

I feel honoured to be in the presence of so many consistently profitable traders :D

I believe my edges (i have more than one strat) still work, i believe i was too aggressive in my risk taking with them. Will see what the future holds.

My 10K is probably sitting in your account then, or you spent it already, if so i hope you spent my money well, on women or booze or towards a fast car :cool:

I see no difference between trading on a simulator and backtesting. You can develop a system on a simulator that fails when you go live and same with backtesting, you can develop a system that works well on back data but fails in live. I prefer to backtest. I believe i have an edge with my...

I will continue to trade small as an alternative to stoping trading. I have done work that will prevent me having big losing days in the future. Have developed an auto liquidator for my IB account which will close all open positions at my daily loss limit, I'm setting my daily loss limit at...

Thanks for the advice. Longer term trading is not my thing. Perhaps it should be but its not a way i feel comfortable trading.

Not old, only started it yesterday. Yes im in the uk. Im trading SIFs mostly.

Im trading stock index futures mainly. Started 2013 with £40000 (about $63K usd) Currently have £30430 ($48K usd) Took some big hits around the February/March time period, 6K lost in two days, cut back size but continued to lose and the account balance slowly drifted even lower...

These phones prove the old saying that money doesn't buy class. The Vertu is the kind of phone you would expect Kim Kardashian to own.

"He did not stick to his own proved system. That's the trouble with most of them" -- Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Its hard to just to stick to a trading plan when times get though. Its much easier to do when things are going well. I have developed a trading system. Assuming the...

Based on the last X price bars. I am either long, short or neutral. All i do is go long short or neutral depending on some logic i have developed. I dont care what my results are. I just follow that process. There is no semantic ambiguity in what i have written. I havent made any...