Search results

so compare the breakevens from TIPS to your inflation expectations. Do you believe that breakevens are too cheap? Then buy them. ok. I'm heavily invested in marine shipping right now -- but that's because of early cycle recovery dynamics. uhh the supply of money is a well known driver of...

I ran a backtest on UVXY and found that the short end of trading a breakout was far more profitable than going long (on a 2 year basis -- when I ran it over a longer time frame, both sucked):

The problem with a lot of the back office stuff is that it is getting automated away. A big bank may only have like 10-15k front office staff, with 50-90k+ employees in the back office or branches (retail channel).

1- Lumber was an example of shocks to supply as the reopening rolls out (sawmills were closed, leading to a bidding war in available timber, etc.). This is going to happen to dry bulk rates too, which are driven by ore transports from Brazil & Australia to China -- here's Iron ore vs Baltic Dry...

I did m&a IBD and s&t on the macro side and, I gotta say, the latter was so much for fun and enjoyable. IBD (investment banking division) hours are like 80-100/wk, while in S&T (sales & trading) it's closer to 50-70/wk. IBD was in large cubicle shared with 2-3 other analysts. S&T is on the...

Yeah that was the danger of going to a Whole Foods when Priuses first came out. Those cars would sneak up on you.

A lot of what looks like inflation are temporary supply shocks and supply-chain constraints. Some of the temporary supply shocks will end up persisting, especially where there is secular demand (lumber if housing construction picks up, aluminum/copper if EV production ramps up faster than...

It's driven by low economic growth (with low rates, low inflation), as investors have extended for yield by adding duration and equity beta. What would cause an inflection in the slope would be a sustained period of growth (with higher inflation, and higher interest rates). Right now, drivers of...

It's funny because you are clueless. Lol okay dude, nice rambling and I hope you enjoy your charts. Just keep your bullshit and disinformation to yourself. You are like the Mike Lindell of ET lol.

Trading size implies it is large lol — clearly you’ve never been on a trading floor. Your understanding of inflation and Fed policy is incorrect. One only needs to look at Japan and the Eurozone to see how money supply =! Inflation, because banks are paid interest on excess reserves. Everyone...

@SunTrader you don’t get it yet but you’re talking to people with professional trading experience, not retail hobbyists that you might be more accustomed to.

I met my adviser through my network (he’s at Morgan Stanley). His value add is that he makes sure that I’m doing the things I need to do to build wealth (contribute to accounts, tax mitigation, review of assets, make sure my trusts are in order, etc.). I meet with him 2-3x a year for an update...

Yes — and they are pretty good as long as they are part of a team.

Who says quants don't make money? o_O

Interview advisers at Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch, find one that you like, and then negotiate a really low fee (0.50% is probably ok).

Your made up thoughts on how the market or Fed works are so random I'm not sure if you are high or just dumb.

Lol, the Fed purchases treasuries from primary dealers through reserves. I'm not going to explain the nuance of STIRS and how the treasury market functions (you can spend the time to educate yourself), but your econ/Fed related posts are completely uneducated. You might as well make shit up...

Yeah this is not how it works. :rolleyes:

Explain the mechanism then lol.

You’ve not been paying attention if you think Fed policy is driving up oil prices.