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It's interesting to watch you evolve.

No it's typically 1yr Daily adjusted beta.

Uh, we are in a deflationary cycle: 1. Lots of debt limits inflation because companies and households have to prioritize paying down debt over investment 2. Population growth in the US and developed world has slowed dramatically over the past two decades 3. Technology is either revolutionary...

I used to trade sim accounts (as a kid -- paper trading on interactive brokers) and kept breaking the sim. Unfortunately, real life is quite different. Backtesting a strategy is more helpful IMO.

yawn

I recommend building using beta spread instead of a price spread. Beta of Co A / Beta of Co B = spread $ value of trade in A * spread = $ value of trade in B $ value of trade in B / share price = units

Then what exactly is your problem with QE? Are you short spx from 3000?

Do you understand how QE works? And do you remember what happened during the last hike cycle?

The Fed has always had a dual mandate lol.

Depends on the strategy. There are certain types of trading opportunities that present themselves within the day, though most do not. Based off what I've seen on ET, most are trading noise, whether they are day or swing traders. I think it's more useful to tie the style to the catalyst. Are...

that’s where we disagree. The Fed has been maintaining liquidity to keep an orderly market. Rates would be lower if the Fed wasn’t doing anything. In TIPS, the yield is negative.

Read the beige books.

Uninformed traders on average lose money. Informed traders on average make money. Time period is irrelevant.

@SunTrader read the link I posted. Dr. Hunt is a well known market economist and bond fund manager based in Texas — he’s as conservative as you can get. But he’s bullish on bonds and he outlines it in his quarterly outlook. Also the type of anecdotal argument you’re using doesn’t work...

There’s a ton of documented evidence that counter cyclical fiscal policies work and help the economy. Ideally the fiscal balance is restored — but we aren’t discussing how efficient government is in balancing their budgets, we are discussing the merit of a counter cyclical fiscal strategy...

It's not a free lunch, it's called counter cyclical fiscal policy. Market failures can last a long time, hence Keynes' quip "in the long run we are all dead men." Better to try to put out a fire than to let the whole building burn down (it may spread, nothing may be spared).

There's a lot of info available for free. Are you looking for estimates on macro data or on SNs?

My point was that to claim inflation beyond a transitory phase, you need to be pointing to a specific phenomena occurring in demand or supply. And by that's a billion-dollar trade if you are seeing something, lol. But monetary inflation is clearly not happening, because the amount of demand has...

Ok— well same question. By next June are freight rates higher/unch/lower? My understand is that in the early part of the recovery freight rates rise due to 1) ships being parked during a downturn 2) crews disbanded or on leave just as demand begins to pick up. This is sustained through the...

yep, I’ve got a great view of the port of Oakland and a bunch of COSCO container ships from my condo haha. Are you saying that rates are going to be higher than expected? Most estimates are for 2-2.5% by eoty. Would you short treasuries?