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I tried a variety of scenarios on the trade data I have and it turned out that nothing outperformed just adding as soon as the threshold was reached. I think that means that basically if you have a positive expectancy that over numerous iterations of adding contracts, the winning percentage will...

Absolutely. I defy anyone to look at a long-term chart of whatever instrument they are trying to catch a major reversal (of course, they have to quantify "major"). Then, count all of the reversals that actually meet those criteria. Then, count all of the bars, candles, ticks, whatever, from the...

Yes, I am right 60% of the time. I don't know what you consider "any length of time" but between paper and real trading, I've got almost 650 trades documented covering over two years of the SPY and the ES. Once I looked within the subsets of 100 to see if one or more were influencing the...

The odds of that exact time being the right time to short are very low. Odds are the right move at that time was either to have stayed in a long you got into earlier or to be waiting for a valid short trigger. I trade what is more or less an hourly timeframe and ideally I make 1-2 trades per...

If you think the problem with "trend following" is that too many people get in to the "trend" too late, then the obvious solution is to figure out how to identify a trend earlier. Duh. Obviously, that isn't easy or everyone would be doing it. But, it can be done, so long as you accept the...

Interesting that you seem to assume you know how I reached that target, i.e. I "guessed". OK, apparently you're a mind-reader in addition to all your other skills.

I did, thanks. I take every trade I can on my method unless something gets between me and the keyboard.

Alright, man, fair enough with the point of making at least some calls. Right now, I like 1317.25 ES before 1354.75. For the record, I'm not claiming any BS like 100% accuracy or anything so outrageous, so if the call doesn't work, it doesn't work.

My understanding is that for the purposes of this thread, "failure" is defined as "eventually stops working" and that even being "wildly successful" for some period of time means that the method is a failure overall. Is that not what you've been saying? The market "changes" are more...

So, basically, you use the statements as a way of weeding out those who clearly are failures, then, among the subset of those who are successful, you demand the method in order to verify success derives from some variant of technical analysis rather than some other way? Anyone who would take...

I doubt it's a straight lifting of Crabel, so who really cares whether or not Crabel influenced it? Clearly, even if Crabel did influence it, the guy isn't going to just do the exact same thing in developing ACD, he's going to look for ways to fix the flaws. You may not have said it directly...

So, because you failed to be successful with something that may or may not be somewhat similar to the ACD method, the ACD method can't work? What kind of logic is that?

You never addressed the post asking you about the ACD method, which, since it is in the public domain, doesn't pose any problems of anyone having to reveal anything about their own methods. ACD has a very robust claim to being "objective TA", (setting aside the issue of TA vs. price action)...

Great, another ET pastime, bitching about the unfairness of it all. Hey, if your goal in life is to be the average loser, knock yourself out. The best measure of the robustness of a strategy is if it gets you into a profitable trade against your bias. If your strategy does not do that...

"There is no bull side of the market or bear side of the market, there is only the right side of the market and the wrong side of the market." Lot of threads bitching and moaning about the rally. Well, shit, the only way a trader makes money is if price moves and, well, price moved. If you...

People who are "among the best" at what they do, do that for a living, not something else, unless you're trying to claim you're "among the best" at two things, what you do actually do for a living and trading. You don't see Roger Federer making cuckoo clocks in Switzerland while claiming to be...

Anyone know how to do a "market if touched" order with this software? The documentation says it supports it, but I don't see it.

There isn't a single factor about a trade that isn't important. It's your money on the line! Your exits should be logically related to the kind of trading you are doing. For example, if you're following a trend, you should exit when the market gives evidence that the trend is ending, whereas...

I watch for a specific set-up on the hourly charts and get about 1-2 trades per day. Average winner is about 6.5 ES points and average loser is about 4 ES points. At those sizes, the cost of trading is much lower as a percentage of the overall trade. There's a formula you can use to determine...

Who cares, really? If you are a trader, all you really care about is price movements, not some number or other. The only numbers you should be worrying about are the T&S numbers for the market you are trading. Everything else is either a curiosity or a distraction.