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I dont agree with this theory if you are talking about longer time frames. You can see the market reacting to economic data. GDP growth rates in the first year of recovery translates into 6x corp profit growth rates in the national income accounts(source: Barrons), therefore unless you are...

Dude, if they do 1000 transactions with the huge seller unloading everything, in everyone of them for every buyer there is a seller, so my statement holds

Well, there is no disagreement here

The reason I mentioned volume is because I couldn't understand what you meant by that toll metaphor

I never said there is an equal amount of buyers and sellers. I said for every buyer there is a seller

Those buyers and sellers changed their expectations over future corporate earnings as a result of the 2nd derivative turning positive and then priced in a V shaped recovery as the economic data kept getting less bad unleashing an optimism speculative boom. The same way that someone might bid...

Its the french, France own us. Beckham cant play :p

Looks like there are some folks cleaning up on sports betting in a similar way that I do with tiger woods(fade him no matter what) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=araLnp36jyOw This could be even better as he plays more often in big tournaments. I just hope he wins a few...

I'm not sure I understand you. Volume has been going down for months in the stock market, and velocity has been going down in the economy as well

But what about citigroup issuing bonds?If you are going to add these sorts of bank debt to the money supply then the money supply will rise a lot yet that is not inflationary because that 'money' has almost zero velocity. Low velocity debt cant be counted as money, time deposits are just a type...

You of course is getting to the issue of 'what is money?'. M3 includes large denomination time deposits but is this different from say a corporate bond?After all someone is giving cash to a bank of which the bank knows they wont hold short-term funding risk, that transaction is very similar to...

I measure money supply by this http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ What about your measure of money on the sidelines?the stuff that bulls mention as cash in the sidelines are usually components of M2, that stuff is ALWAYS on the sidelines, it simply shifts every once and...

I'm not arguing against this, I agree with this. I'm arguing against your measure of 'money on the sidelines', that money on net cant be much higher because the money supply is not growing much, it popped up after Lehman went under but that was about it. If the money supply is not growing then...

I disagree with the 'money on the sidelines' theory, for every buyer(money coming out of the sidelines) there must be a seller(money going to the sidelines). The total money supply is barely growing as the fed is not doing QE aggressively enough and banks are not expanding M1 and M2 by lending...

What do you mean by liquidity?The money supply is barely growing. Bank reserves by definition cant be chasing any goods or assets because they are deposited at the Federal Reserve in NY

Thank you for posting these. It seems pretty clear to me its almost free money to pile in the front end in a levered way to take advantage of this descrepancy between actual tightening probability and 'V shaped, green shoot, excess historical term risk premium' implicit probability And I'm...

"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the Fed has seen an increase in the number of items that are falling in price compared with rising" - WSJ "The M3 "broad" money supply, watched as an early warning signal for the economy a year or so later, has been falling at a...

Yellen on slow growth http://www.zerohedge.com/article/janet-yellens-optimism-waning -Mentions Rogoff study for why she thinks growth will be weak -Mentions weak income growth hurting consumer spending(This is an instance where the unemployment rate will be a leading indicator as the slack...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGTWcMjTpT_w