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I’m curious if anyone knows some statistics on the P/L path an ATM fly usually takes? for example, how often is a fly in the negative through the duration of the trade? how often is it negative? I know this is all relative

Actually, reading elitetrader forums brings a wealth of knowledge that most books lack. A lot of books are the same boring gibberish, while these forums hold a lot of amazing free information. Of course there are many great books as well but the forums is where it's at.

The word edge is too loosely used. I make a good amount of profits trading vertical spreads. It's how the trader trades the strategy which determines an "edge" , not the strategy itself.

TBS is around.. I assume he’s studying and altering his method of madness to come back even stronger

"A number of studies suggested that the distribution of volatility is log-normal"

I'm not trying to win any argument, just trying to have a healthy discussion and build a different viewpoint. Cheers!

I became aware of the Dead Sea Scrolls, and the Nag Hammadi Library years ago when I was reading heavy Philip K Dick literature/writings, and have became very interested in these writings, their origins, the stories themselves, why these books weren't canonized etc, etc.. I started to wonder...

"Jesus said, "If those who lead you say to you, 'See, the kingdom is in the sky, ' then the birds of the sky will precede you. If they say to you, 'It is in the sea,' then the fish will precede you. Rather, the kingdom is inside of you, and it is outside of you. When you come to know yourselves...

"Jesus said, "Blessed is the lion which becomes man when consumed by man; and cursed is the man whom the lion consumes, and the lion becomes man." #GospelofThomas7:1

It can't be equal. For example lets take a 20 year chart of the SPX and a 1 minute chart of the SPX.. The 20 year will show a gain, but on any given day the SPX can close negative, thus its not equal, unless by equal you mean trading a monthly chart can give the same profits/losses as trading...

Keep it going! Nice.

Yes its fractal but that doesn't mean opportunity across the time-space is equal. Obviously we as traders find the time-frame that fits our personality. I always zoom out then zoom in when analyzing an underlying.

What you just wrote is very similar to Peter Steidlmayers thoughts on market movements in his 1996 book on Market Profile published by CBOT. Its very imformative, and its one of the books that's made me understand the magnitude movements of the market and price discovery. The action is within...

Right, but what is random? There needs to be context around these words. Because just because something is "random" doesn't mean theres a pattern within the chaos. I mean, the simple fact that one can overlay any Fibonacci type analysis on any chart, and it lines up perfectly is beyond mere...

Anyway subscribe to this website? They seem to have a lot of useful info for free, just wondering if anyones paid for a subscription?

I'm aware of the debit/creditness nature of iron's vs. vanilla fly's

I still don't buy this whole random walk shit. Maybe I'm not understanding it correctly, but when I look at financial charts, its definitely not "random". For example, when I look at $TICK, or some weird bond instrument, yes THEY look completely randomized. But looking at price action, theres...

Do you guys look at IV as it pertains to what type of fly you construct? I'm assuming yes? For example, an ATM ironfly, I've read that IV does not necessarily need to be "high", just higher than the ATR of the underlying? Thus, ATM iron's can be traded in any vol environment, expecting...

The ARCH models are popular for a reason. GARCH consistently outperforms EWMA/RW in all sub-periods and under all measures. GARCH separates the vol persistence (clusters) from vol-shocks (jump-diffuzz) and incorporates mean reversion. As far as AAPL returns. Whats the target specifically? Are...

50 is a smart man, and his investments are usually very lucrative. I always wondered what would happen if someone like 50 learned to trade well and used his capital to grow it more.