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Exactly. It assumes there is demand for loans. In a prolonged period of balance sheet contraction there is extremely low demand for new debt, no matter how low the interest rates.

It makes no difference at all. If volatility is lower, simply increase your position size. Same thing (except for higher trading fees).

"quickly fading from relevance" LOL Trend following funds manage more money than ever before. Heck there's about $30 billion in trend following mutual funds (!) these days. And that's just a fraction of trend following assets.

These long vola funds had a dismal close to 2015 and were down on the year. Of course no more press releases or Bloomberg articles.

LMAO @ global sell off. What sell off?

Looks like Altucher was very wrong. Trend following funds now are bigger as an industry as they were in 2006 -- when the prediction was made.

Greek valuations is now more expensive on a CAPE10 basis than UK, Italy, Austria, Singapore or Norway. Anyone who bought into this (threadstarter included) on a basis that it's cheap has run out of arguments.

Where are all the guys who were screaming for curbing evil commodity speculation in 2010/2011. Trading & speculation are a good thing when crude goes down. Once oil hits $80 again in a couple years they will come out of the wood works again slamming greedy speculators.

That of course makes no sense. A long (short) straddle can make sense depending on your view of future volatility. For example, a long straddle position can be viewed as a very crude trendfollowing strategy.

Credible doing what? Writing blog posts about college squash? Tell me anything trading related that VN has *ANY* credibility in. Risk management? Arrogance? Trading acumen? Blowing up? Posting arrogant comments about 'dumb bears' in 2007? Should I go on?

He lost whatever money he made decades ago, now writes a blog and tries to sell books. He's a bit more credible than V. Niederhoffer which is not saying much.

Really don't want to bash, but take it from me: You have no idea what you're talking about. Don't try to make a living trading. Stick with poker if it works for you. P.S. options equal a payoff function that is a fraction of their underlying. What does this mean? You can replicate any option...

Still long this, 6% annualized ROI so far. Better than a loss so I'll take it. Will continue to hold through to completion.

Why are you posting this drivel? Altutcher is a paper-trading shill. Zero credibility.

You're oversimplifying. Premium sellers have that kind of win rate. They all leverage up and blow up after a couple of years.

They also don't refer to themselves in the 3rd person like this clown does routinely. Its obvious this piker is craving for attention on message boards that he's not getting in real life.

Why do people take trading strategies like trend following which show a historically proven relevance over time periods of 6-18 months (read: long-term trading) in intra-day trading? And then they whine "Oh but it doesn't work". It's like taking a Ferrari and going offroad with it, then...

Drug lords across the world rejoice!

I know no one who believes those fairytales. You?

Merger arb is open to any account size. And historically it produces excess profits over time as it exploits a market inefficiency.