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Just wondering, where were those loving JPM now in February of this year, just three months ago? That's the last time it traded around $37. Apparently it didn't get much love back then. Then it rises 20%, quickly drops 15% and it becomes a value-investor's dream? I love the logic.

Loew's Tisch picking up a theory that Hugh Hendry made earlier: He thinks the US will see an economic revival in a few years time based on the fracking boom and the resulting cheap natural gas. Utility companies are mass-migrating plants to use nag gas instead of coal. As a result coal prices...

I personally pay no attention to carry at all, positive or negative. I trade the major currencies using the CME FX futs and use those prices for entries/exits and stops. The carry is 'baked in' into the future price and a weak chart is still a weak chart even with 500+ bps of annual carry. If...

I don't disagree here, I'm pessimistic about the prospects for sustained inflation-adjusted gains in US stocks over the next 5-10 years. I keep hearing how incredibly cheap this market is but I just don't see it. At best IMO US equities are fairly valued, at worst they're overpriced heading into...

No thesis to share as I enter and exit exclusively on technicals, although I use fundamentals in single stock selection. Equities mostly US, some emerging market. Have been completely out of European equities for some time now, would like to re-enter if they showed some lasting strength...

As Daal is the only one disclosing his entire allocation I also took a few mins to put together my asset allocation numbers. As % of my net worth: - approx. 130% long and 40% short equities for 90% net long - 200% long bonds, mostly gov futs Rest is minor positions 20% long commodities...

You'd be surprised. Big fortunes are lost and watered down all the time, often due to over-concentration in a high-beta investment. Good article here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204336104577096410776256928.html

Just bought a couple Swissy long bond contracts for a trade. They are trading on the EUREX/SOFFEX and have OK liquidity (unless you trade 100 lots).

I agree with you, however, I didn't mean strong trends or fat tails, just big gaps. If you use the underlying and a stop you're exposed to gap risk. With an equivalent option you don't have the gap risk but you pay for the privilege (the premium). That's all I meant. Both approaches...

Completely disagree. To me stops (and of course slippage and gaps) define everything I worry about risk-wise. I am sure a hardcore value investor would disagree but that's what makes a market doesn't it. See, just because it doesn't work for you shouldn't lead you to disqualify the approach for...

If you look historically some of the best (or rather 'fastest payoff') trades were made by betting against the direction of carry at the right time, especially when combined with outlandish PPP overvaluation. Not the case for EURCHF obviously so it's a bit OT, but I'm patiently waiting for...

No obviously I understood exactly what you meant. a. Something unexpected happens and markets become more volatile. Why exactly did my risk go up? It didn't because my stops stay were they were. Stops define my risk, not market volatility (if we disregard gap risk). Let's assume I am long...

oops misread the 1.19 there. My bad.

You mean the outlandish 1% annual carry?

Over the years I have probably been stopped out of two dozen or so currency positions thanks to CB intervention. None of them resembled a 'freight train' you are referring to.

Long @ 20 stop at 19? You've got to be kidding me.

I never understood this type of argument. I never allow an underlying macro gut feeling dictate what trades I am allowed to enter. If a trade doesn't work out I get out at a loss, no matter how high my gut level conviction was. Either the trade works or it doesn't. What benefit do you derive...

See it's just a difference in personal approach. I don't mind entering trades even if there's few fundamental arguments for them... there may even be dozens of headlines in random research that speak in favor of entering the opposing position. Considering your conviction, how much of your...

I don't doubt that but there's nothing exciting about entering a trade with a positive expectancy. It doesn't guarantee you're right. I don't see the analogy to horse races, sports betting or lottery at all.

You ignore negative vs. positive expectancy.