Search results

... with high probability. The advantages of tax-deferred compounding is obvious. So, I wonder if I could do this: - sell $100k of deep OTM strangles, in IRA account. - buy $100k of same strangle, in regular account. With 95% probability, I essentially end up moving $100k into...

Okay, I'm excited. I hope the spreads are reasonable around reports.

By the way... a 2.5 sigma daily move happens approximately twice a year. That's what happened with silver, and is not a black swan. A 5 sigma daily move (assuming normal distribution) happens approximately once every 10,000 years... now that's a black swan.

I don't think there's any point in debating this... Not when we can look at it in a quantative way. Even as silver was peaking at $48, implied vola on silver was as 60%. In daily terms, that means a 4% move in one day is a 1-sigma move. So, the subsequent 10% down days are about a 2.5...

Margin calls are a real issue, although I dont think it was a factor in the silver collapse. I think margin calls reinforce the current trend, not reversing them. Anyone long silver was hugely up when silver hit $48.... Why would they have margin issues maintaining their longs? I have an...

Two words: wife, kids.

I actually did get hit by a bus today... I didn't get a close look at the license plate, but I do have CL imprinted on my forehead. Thank you for your advice, btw! I don't file an ADV II, but at least now I know the specific terminology I should be using. I've already had some superficial...

I don't have a position in silver. But I will say, I'm not convinced the liquidation in commodities is over. The *huge* sell off in crude (as well as a number of other instruments) today almost always means there will be a wave of margin calls. You can't tell me that every investor who was...

Full on liquidation in commodities.

I want to get away from the assumption that they can pose as me in any way (which is what you're suggesting). It *might* work, or it might not... falls apart if she needs to call the broker and liquidate positions that are traded on the floor, for example. I'm really looking for something a...

There must be something formal I have to submit...? I have to imagine my brokers wouldn't be wild about the idea of "monitoring" my account to see whether trading activity has occurred. I also have a third party admin firm for the firm, but they don't really see my trading activity, nor are...

I know... if I had an early demise, you'd be sad, Megan Fox would be sad. But more importantly, what about my LLC + fund? What's standard arrangement for things like this? I would like to make sure all open positions are liquidated as soon as possible. Is there a way of making this...

Oh, it certainly has a negative expectation. But even if you have a normally distributed random variable with a hugely negative expectation, that does not mean a non-zero possibility that it can be positive. It's perfectly possible that I'll flip a coin heads up 1 billion times in a row.

I think you're overstating it, eudaemon. Statistically speaking, there's next to nothing that we can state with certainty. The notion that credit spreads "must" blow up, Howard is correct, is not correct. There's no 100% certainty. I think the difference here is 1) between living in San...

Looking at their returns with a closer eye... and you'll see they're doing exactly that: playing Russian Roulette. For god's sake, they some how managed to lose 33% in March 2010 on a "relent-less 20 day up trend". You'll also note that they ended up "flat" in both April and May 2010...

Pretty standard for just about every the technology provider out there. They typically will want to do compliance testing before you connect, and there are obviously special support requirements if you use their API.

You're asking if it's reasonable to double your money every year (putting in $50k and making $100k a year). I don't think it will take you too much time to decide how reasonable that really is. I agree with the earlier comment: as an engineer, you have actual knowledge/skills/experience that...

lazar, Congrats on the good year! Question, why the difference in performance from the fund and your personal trading? Looks like the fund was up 4% and your personal trading ~10% over April. Is it just different leverage, or are you trading the two differently?

Both are certainly available via Ninja.

I agree with you. meanreversion is talking his belief, and not the science. Decades of published quant research confirms that at the money implied vol is, indeed, "rich" for just about all instruments... even over long time-frames. And the failure of Taleb's funds just goes to emphasize the...