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Paulson made his billions by making high risk, concentrated bets. And now, he's losing billions using a similar approach. Any investor that thought volatility only ran one direction is now better informed. As far as whether he "doesn't care" about his investors... considering that his (and...

October last year. USDA reports always come in when markets are closed. CME's trying to get them to change that. This year hasn't exactly been quiet. USDA has gone limit up/down a few times... even NYMEX was briefly limit down in May this year, when heating oil hit its daily limit (causing...

I'm still net short gamma, so a big move = bad news for me. That's the name of the game, I will *always* have a negative skew in my outcome distribution. In this specific case, big USDA report left the grains locked limit up. Corn was held limit up 2 days in a row, actually. And me...

Really, who cares? Automated trading applications rarely get very large. Most applications (especially the ones we're discussing on this site) will be maintained by either a single individual, or a small team. All of the standard computer science "knowledge" that applies to systems...

My worst day (so far) was -$320k, last year. Very hard to gain perspective on life after a day like that, haha. I really had to work to keep myself distracted... read a lot of fun books instead of looking at my numbers.

Saw the article this morning in the WSJ that Paulson was just up 1% this month, missing out on the huge bounce. Looked around at the indices, and saw that he's not alone: http://www.hedgefundsreview.com/real-time-data Those are some pretty ugly numbers, considering the huge surge we just...

Jesus, that's complicated. And don't you end up paying taxes in your C-Corp? Not even a S-corp? Just go with the single member LLC. Set it up in Delaware with BizFilings like everyone else (well, me) did.

Back up, I just googled this... if you go the LP route, it suggests as a general partner (or a limited partner involved in management), you don't, in fact, have limited liability. Can't imagine that's a good idea.

I used a LLC. Very simple, straight-forward approach. I don't really know about advantages of LLC vs LP in that context... probably pretty similar.

It's all about the MARGINAL money flow. The question about who's buying isn't important... The important one is, who would be left selling? Who wouldn't have already sold (or gone short) in Aug, Sep, or the first weekend in Oct? Who was left to sell more the last two weeks? I definitely...

I'm still not clear what you're asking. But I mean... looking at just your first chart, and just assuming you just withdrew your profits at the end of each year... so we just divide PNL each year/starting size ($136k) , your performance would've been: - 2005, +43% - 2006, +105% - 2007...

I mean, you can do anything you want. It's not like there are any regulatory rules involved here. Just make clear what you're doing to your investors, the only ones that matter. If you told me that you're maintaining a consistent M/E ratio.. then I'd expect a consistent M/E ratio, meaning...

Hi there, That's a big mish mash of numbers, not to sure what to tell you. Unlikely anyone has time to re-check for arithmetic correctness. Instead, can you ask a specific question about concepts you are confused by?

In all seriousness, this might be why a dip here might be temporary. Everyone is either short or hedged, no one will be "surprised" at this point by an EU summit failure. In contrast, in early August, a lot of people were positioned long going into the weekend, betting the US debt limit...

These binary events are a ridiculous way to "run" the markets.

I thought there was a change in fundamentals, with new satellite photos showing a significant reduced excess inventory at Cushing. The article above didn't mention that at all... interesting.

I thought the number 1 rule of finance investment was to never talk about finance investment.

If you bought weekly puts with a $80 strike @ $0.25 today... they will be worth ~$7 tomorrow. So, 30-1.

That blog is mind-blowingly awesome. I wish I could subscribe. Reading this review article reminds me why computers are going to eventually dominate all trading. http://www.jonathankinlay.com/Articles/Market%20Microstructure%20Models/Market%20MicroStructure%20Models.pdf

What's the question, exactly...? It's been a while since I've looked at Markov chains, but I'm extremely interested in the topic... in fact, I've been on the look out for a good/current intro grad student level book on the topic. If there are any references out there, I'd appreciate it...