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maybe equity people can't decide between good consumer confidence, ISM numbers and bad news like 2 dollar oil rise, and construction # suggesting housing bubble about to pop? bonds notes reacting "logically" so far.

Nice volatility in ZN, ZB, oil and currencies ES stuck in a 2 pt range over the last hour... WTF???

Yes, but it takes a certain personality type to fade a 20 pt ES news spike, to take losses accepting a mistake or to keep a position or a system through a normal drawdown or retracement. Intellect is not enough.

dollar making new highs?

Exactly, I don't get why some funds hire academic prima donnas. All they want to do is to "prove" *their* research is so hot and brilliant, but how much money do they expect to make using stuff everyone else knows already. I don't know any people there but I had a brief conversation once...

this call uncannily nailed a rocket ride.... towards the center of the earth LOL

Since last FOMC meeting: S&P, DJIA up BONDS, NOTES up --- long rates down OIL up employment, inflation data about the same I see no reason for Greenspan to shamelessly pump the markets like last time. On the contrary, there are reasons to keep increasing rates. So there is no...

ZN ZB going down, expecting "continuing raising at a measured pace".

So you're saying if there is no indication rate lifting is about to end the market will tank? Good point. But then again Greenspan rarely goes against what Wall St expects.

Ahead of tomorrow Greenspan pump-a-pallooza oil down.... I was expecting at least S&P +5.00 EDIT OK the Greenspan buying might have occurred yesterday but what about oil....

There might be something to this Elliott analysis, projecting new yearly lows. This three day puke has been more vicious than early March, specially the Dow which just erased in just three days half of its gains since the April low. We all know how the puke off the 3/7 top ended. Of...

Yes I have read all of her books, they were useful to me. It helped me to locate the specific traumatic experiences and social/educational conditioning that were causing me permanent anxiety and poor trading system execution. Then I brainwashed myself to erase my own self-defeating...

LOL you're probably right, there are mathematically simpler approaches to profitably "model" the markets. But I was talking about their oversimplified ex post "explanation" of how market works. We as traders don't need to go too much into why our strategies work. We are happy as long as the...

I guess the fatal mistake of this paper is classifying all market participants in 2 black and white types: smart institutional fundamental contrarians and stupid retail trend following noise traders. The inevitable conclusion is that bubbles when they arise are created by the "noise traders"...

savant you might be right but why no one "protects" those losing their life savings in Las Vegas. There is no minimum stake of 25K to enter a Vegas casino. Also, why there is higher leverage for those above 25K. That makes me think there is more to it than just stop people from losing.

gnome you're right. but at least we have the brokers who definitely won't like lower trading volumes. they might lobby against these proposals.

Just had a conversation with an economist last weekend. Yes, I must be a masochist. I learnt about a theory called "noise trading" It basically says anyone trading off technical analysis or price patterns, specially day traders and retail traders, are harmful for the markets and prevent...

we all agree there is definitely a problem. we know for sure the current policies are NOT working. if we raise the cost of illegality tightening the borders even more then only the worst will come, those who don't care about legality or paying taxes those who are willing to break the law...

Excellent idea, you're a genious, richie for senator (i am not being sarcastic) new mexico maybe no one lives there. or nevada so they can spend all their money in las vegas. The problem is how do you prevent people to drive to california, texas etc. but it would definitely rise the cost of...

accurate, excellent posts johnself just one thing, in addition to carry trades fixed income guys do convergence trades a la LTCM, convertible arb, MBS and CDOs they are all basically convergence/mean reversion trades