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IB has rules as to when to roll over you bond futures: 2 hours before the end of open outcry trading on the business day prior to First Notice Day (longs) or Last Trading Day (shorts) Here is the CBOT bond futures schedule: http://cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1082+TY+all+2005,00.html So...

I wish they made it simpler. There is no confusion rolling over the S&P e-mini on the CME. And I don't have to worry about delivery with the S&P either. We need to be extra careful with the bond futures so we don't end up taking delivery.

I didn't say anything about suddenly collapsing, though that is always a possibility.

I agree with the rally from last night's lows, but not with the rally from Friday's close. But the market doesn't have to make sense to me or anybody else. It does it's own thing without asking us.

Oil was up today.

If this is true, Bush (or whoever give him the advice he follows - Card, Cheney, Rice, etc) is much smarter than I thought.

Why do you guys listen to those idiots? I figured the hurricane would do about $30B in damage, second only to Andrew. The latest estimate I saw was about $20B in damage, though that is likely to change.

But the market doesn't trade over the weekend. The result is that the US economy and earnings are worse off now than they were at Friday's close, even if it is better than what some idiot on CNN was saying.

I'm still short. Been short since July 22nd and see no reason to cover. This hurricane and the damage it's done certainly won't make me cover.

I thought Bush ran with Cheney.....

I don't buy the arguement that the market is up because it wasn't as bad as expected. When the market closed Friday, the hurricane was supposed to do nothing. Here's from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator about the SF earthquake: "The market went off. Then it came back. It shaded off and...

The more interesting question is whether this is just a head fake, likely engineered by the Fed or some big brokerage firms.

The U.S. Coast Guard said it has received reports that Hurricane Katrina has set adrift one, and possibly two, unmanned off-shore oil drilling units in the Gulf of Mexico. http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/08/29/hurricane.katrina/index.html

So I'll just plan (in general) to roll over at the end of the day before the last business day of the month. That way, I'm always in the most active contract, but totally avoid the notice.

So my best bet is to rollover the last business day in the morning? Or even the day before towards the end of the day?

Do you have a link to the CBOT or somebody else explaining all this?

I'm glad I'm not the only one who seems the similarities.

Just like the 1906 earthquake. It took days before people realized the city was destroyed. This will cause tens of billions of damage, at a minimum. This hurricane is only half over. And we have no idea how much damage it has already done.

So what should I be buying and selling? I think I may short the Allah futures and go long some Budda call options.

Oil down, stocks down, bonds up. (I'm long bonds and short stocks)