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It stops burning. But why would you want to bet on that as long as it is burning strong? In my opinion shorting a move like this without any confirmation is gambling at best.

I hope so @wave. Would finally get me to that 100 pt trade :D But those who remember last time know the top of this rally will be 3406,50.

I would think a lot depends on how many trades we are talking about, and how much risk you allow. If you are talking about 20 trades and big stops it is too early to cheer, but if you scalp and average that over hundreds of trades I would be happy with it.

I understand what you mean but the consequence of that is that the raw odds for all statistics are worthless and you should define all odds in relation to the previous days or whatever you want to take into account. So the 4% would also depend on what happened earlier this week and as such is...

It's an interesting topic actually whether you can or not compare. If you say you cannot compare since market is fundamentally different, then why calculate the odds in the first place?

Not sure your calculation is correct here. On wednesday the 4% odds are valid for inside days on thursday and friday. But now thursday is a fact I think the odds for today are the same as for any other day. Rolling 6 two times in a row is 1 chance out of 36. But after throwing a six the odds for...

That timing is impressive. I actually got out of my long at 3324 since it was the top of the range we have been in since yesterday and because the bearish trendline above was around 3326. Was it the fact that we had a failed bearish breakout below the range that made you confident to long into...

Already stopped, that was quick.

long 3312 here, stop 3308. Target 3326. Just playing the range. We might drop here, but I like the odds.

That Kodak call was amazing VZ! I only trade ES so didn't profit from it but still appreciate your effort.

First of all, I am not the most experienced nor profitable trader here so not sure how relevant my answer will be to you. I just mentioned a couple of things that came to mind but I indeed did not mention indicators or any other 'tool', probably because I don't use those myself. I started out...

Hi Poljot, I assume you are new to trading? The answer to that question would be the holy grail in trading I'm afraid. So chances are slim someone here can help you out on this one. There are several ways to trade, and each method will use different techniques to try and identify (a higher...

You don't expect a re-test of at least 3233 here Spooz? I expected it earlier and was just forgetting about it when this pullback came.

nl = neckline. No idea what compound means in this context.

Glad to see the familiar names coming back :)

Thanks for the detailed explanation!

I am making progress and actually have been on a nice winning streak lately but I am at best just struggling less than before. Main reason I sometimes post my thoughts or charts is to provoke constructive criticism. And that shot at that 100 pointer was just that: a lucky shot. Though would...

This thread is really great by the way, thanks for the daily posts guys. I am sure many silent visitors appreciate it as well. Too bad NQurious left, really liked his style as well. Hopefully he'll be back some day.

I am surprised consensus among the more experienced traders here seems to be PA/TA was abnormal today. I was surprised to see that big move up from 3105 as well, but I did expect a bounce there. And it is not the first time I close my long way too early and then watch it going higher and...

Great call Spooz Top! Hourly now suggests we are either in a range if 3125 holds, or around 3106 is next support on my chart. Channel up is history for the moment.