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Since I've been quiet for a while, I'll put in my two cents. I think markets are torn by irreconciliable forces: oil wants to go up but the Fed is determined to draw the line at $70 (for the time being); but since stocks are only correcting, oil is not interested in giving up. I have the...

No problem. Thanks for contributing.

I'm still on the sidelines waiting for a signal to get short. Even if <b>all</b> markets reversed yesterday I didn't get that signal because part of what happened yesterday and overnight was oil and stocks going up after a stronger-than-expected core CPI, which doesn't make sense unless you...

A simple estimate would be the yield difference between TIPS and the same term nominal Treasury bonds. Depends on the prevailing bias and how other markets react.

I prefer to be on the sidelines for a few more days but if I HAD to make a bet I would bet that prices are about to surge and peak shortly after. Recent price movements, in the light of incoming events such as tomorrow's Beige Book and Fed talk Thursday and Friday, are announcing a big move by...

The setup I was waiting for is starting to take shape. While the 30 yr bonds are going up because of the Fed's constant reminders of its commitment to keep inflation under control, shorter maturities are showing a lot of resistance to follow. Longer maturities are also going up because the...

I read both <i>The Alchemy of Finance</i> and <i>Soros on Soros</i>, and found them very good.

If oil prices start going down, we'll be back to where we were a few months ago when stocks had very little volatility and often were kept that way by a tug-of-war with oil. If oil stays strong, we'll continue having the kind of volatility of late because the Fed has no choice right now to show...

Yes and all markets are in sync to express the belief that we are starting to see the results of an hawkish monetary policy. Commodities are going down while the dollar is surging and bonds are up with the inflation-risk premium continuing to melt. Price action in the bond market was very...

LOL. I couldn't resist looking up where you're located because that's a great idea.

To all of you who have been posting since Friday: <br>Excellent posts!

It was a very small profit indeed and I liquidated because of concerns about what is going on in other markets. The dollar is reacting very negatively to signs of slower growth and has failed to stay above 85 (US Dollar Index). Oil is not going down unless the stock market dives, which in turn...

Liquidated long position that was established in the middle of May.

That's why I like the markets so much, because they are the closest thing to absolute justice.

Ahum, ya I know the feeling.

I don't think Bernanke is beyond criticism but this rebute was purely political. It came from Sen. Jim Bunning who had opposed Bernanke's nomination as Fed chief and the effects of Bernanke's comments ended up being very positive for all markets. Bonds started to form a bottom the following...

I'm not concerned at all by that since I was expecting it, for two reasons. Once bonds reached 107 the bottom base formation was completed and from that point on bonds were supposed to start increasing at a much slower rate than what was extrapolated by today's highs. The other reason is more...

Exaaactly.... And I thought I was the only one coming here just to skim for IMG links.

It means he's with you. "Hear, hear!" is still used at the Parliament (lanboy is from Canada), meaning "Hear, all ye good people, hear what this brilliant and eloquent speaker has to say!"

Excellent!