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That's the hardest part.

That would make sense since people tend to liquidate or cover their positions ahead of holidays, but that would also indicate a <i>long</i> bias among those folks.

I did something similar Thursday afternoon, last week, when I wrote 110 puts to convert my outright bearish position into a 114-110 bearish spread. I plan on buying back those puts I at a lower price in a week and get back into an outright bearish position with my old 114 puts.

I see something similar: slight pullback until after Friday's employment report (until Monday or Tuesday next week).

I have no problem with the sixty or zero minute rule, even if I tend to re-edit my posts 3 or 4 times afterward because of my poor communications skills, but when I see good contributors (generating a lot of information and hits) having problems with it, then I also have a problem with it, and...

I was going to ask the same thing. Why would it be different for puts?

After experimenting with the new rule, we're starting to see the costs versus the gains. <b><font color=navy>Costs</font></b> We are starting to see a compromise with the quality or accuracy of information shared. Some recent examples: <blockquote><i>You know, this new time limit for...

Same here. Everything will be Open Source technology but I will avoid Swing like the pest and look into Flash, VB or Cold Fusion if I need a dynamic GUI.

That's actually what describes best what eventually happened the last fifty minutes of that day. No <i>Bond Bounce</i>, just choppy action.

Good question.

Thanks for sharing, John.

Thank you. I didn't think anybody noticed, even if this week ended up being a Grand Slam for me. Bonds, the US dollar and (the one I'm most proud of because of the type of analysis used) stocks: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=960550#post960550 I noticed something that...

I think bond prices will take a break and go up a little for about a week before going down again after that. I kept my short position with March 114 puts that I bought a few days ago but yesterday at the end of the day I also wrote 110 puts that I plan on buying back later when I think that...

Sorry, I was way off!!!:eek: Maybe it was the volatility that represented 70.... Ok I'm spinning my wheels now.

As a reminder, the CRB Index is basically a proxy for oil prices. Last time I checked, about ahem... 10 years ago, oil was constituting about 70-75% of the index. A true commodity index is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index because each commodity's weigth is based, if I remember well, on the...

Actually you're right, market consensus builds up gradually so it is somehow lagging. The key is to see it change direction and how it evolves before it takes it's final form, which is what you and I were actually doing in this thread. We only have slightly diverging views on oil (as always we...

It looks like we have a new market consensus. In the next few weeks, news and events will be evaluated with the sentiment that the economy is stronger than previously thought. Oil prices seem to be stabilizing -- correcting from an emotional jump(Iran) but with limited downside because of...

Hi five!

If you would have said that Friday's are not good I would have said that you have a system that picks up the underlying trend but in your case you might have a system that either detects oversold/overbought conditions or signals the appropriate time for new positions to take place. Fridays are...

How are Fridays working for you? Neutral, bad, good? This would help us to give you some answer.