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If people borrow less there is less money for consuming commodities through personal consumption or production (with less demand for money comes less demand for commodities).

Yea, you're right, $5 wouldn't be significant. But if we would drop by whatever amount and stay below $68-70 for a while...

Haven't had rye in a long time but scotch or bourbon... that's a different story.

Their information and their policy are major inputs to market sentiment and in that regard (and in many other aspects) they have a huge edge, which is fine because markets rely on them to make good decisions and to be credible. I oil tops tomorrow or after tomorrow (which is very likely to...

So far, they haven't expressed any specific concern about the current run-up in oil prices and if I remember well, they haven't during the previous peaks either. Instead, they pay close attention to economic variables causing oil prices to go up and the extent to which higher crude prices are...

Wow, this thread is really special indeed: We (gharghur, curto, john111, bluesuedeshoe,myself) are more hawkish than the Fed, which is quite different than the usual trader's rethoric.

Things have changed a lot since then (three weeks ago). "The odds of another increase to 5.25 percent by the central bank's Aug. 8 meeting are <b>100 percent, up from less than 7 percent three weeks ago</b>." - Bloomberg. April 16, 2006 11:09 EDT.

<font face=courier> 10 Yr Note +0'05 30 Yr Bonds +0'04 </font> The inflation-risk premium keeps growing. While the strength of the stock market creates more room for interest rate hikes.

Almost 1/2 billion dollar for the pig's retirement!? If I were an Exxon shareholder, I wouldn't hesitate to dump the stock, or a fund holding that stock in its portfolio.

...and honored you gave my name to your chart.

Much appreciated. Thank you.

It's something like that in the sense that the market is perceiving that a near end to the rate hike cycle would create inflation. While economic data and Fed comments over the past few weeks indicated that we are nowhere near the end of a rate hike cycle, the bond market was incorporating that...

All types are good. I'm an INFP for which the right professions are anything that has to do with arts, while the bad ones are related to business and law. The key is to find an approach that makes the best use of your specific talents. Like I mentioned I few times, I trade stories.

The two kinds of economic forces that flatten and steepened the yield curve both lead to tighter monetary policy. The 'conumdrum' that <font color=blue>flattened the curve</font> makes monetary tightening less effective and forces the Fed to make additional interest rate hikes; and the build...

<b><font>IGNORE THAT GRAPH</font></b> Ignore the graph shown above in my last post (three posts up). I posted a link to a CRB Index chart at barchart.com that has been changed and that is now associated to another chart.

It's too early to dismiss the persistent influence of new elements such as Greenspan's conundrum and pension funds' voracious needs for long term bonds. Interest rates are still low by historical standards and the yield curve is almost flat at a time commodity prices are exploding. <img...

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I also think that the stock market will continue to surprise us with its strength. At the source of what has been bringing bonds down is solid growth and yet the Nasdaq had just caught up with the S&P before stocks corrected, so stocks still have a lot of time left to celebrate.

We might have reached a point where bears don't want to sell anymore but bulls don't want to jump in yet.