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if number is good, ES will rally and reach 1225 in no time, at that point, should we fade it or not, since retail sales and consumer conf. both will beat estimates. I guess I won't fade it. If number is bad, ES will go down, at that point we have retail sales better and cons. conf. worse...

9:55 EST

haha :) I am waiting till UMich confidence before taking a trade.

where is everyone today ?

updated stop: 1192.5 hoping for target somewhere between 1178-1182

short 1190, stop 1196, target open

short 1211.75, stop 1215

Yes, OandA does offer box options but I am trying to get vanilla options. I looked at the CME website to see liquidity in euro options but it is almost non-existant, kindoff surprised me. Is there any other way I can trade it through IB (changing brokers is too much of a hassle to just trade...

How do you know pros are not playing collapse over the next 6 months? Seriously, what is your source of info? What kind of exotic options banks/hfs are carrying on their books to play for euro downside - how can you or me or possibly anybody know. Apologies if my tone sounds threatening, I am...

How can retail take a longer term (3-6 months) position on a currency like Euro through options? I know I can buy 3m euro 1.20 puts in interbank market as an institution, but as a retail trading through IB and having a small account, how do I buy a put option on Euro. The basic idea is I want...

stopped myself from long Euro trade at 1.36 and reversed, very tight stop: 20 pip on this one, target: 50-100 pip. I gave back 50% of profits, but that was a conscious decision trying to pyramid my profits 2-3x.

Update: I closed at 1.365 hoping to reenter around 1.363, but price ran away from me. Reentered at 1.368 with x+1/3x+1/3x+1/3x = 2x position size. Stop: 1.359, Target: Open Would have been better had I left the trade as such without touching it. Now, if I get stopped, I will give back 70% of...

Wow, I never thought this call will pan out so beautifully. I am pleased with myself, I hope if anyone took any idea from this call, he/she made some bucks. Euro just had no significant retracement today at all. If my memory serves me right, such days used to happen in Euro during Sep/Oct of...

Wow I didn't know that stress tests applied sovereign bond haircuts to only trading books and left banking books as such. Even Steve Jobs was not able to achieve such a level of reality distortion!!!

Good points. My response: 1. I have few fully validated and forward tested strategies, which are rainmakers. 2. I have 3 years of experience following and trading FX in a discretionary way, and have a medium level understanding of what drives prices. Also the back-testing I have done for...

Thanks, fair and balanced feedback is always welcome and helpful. It is true that I have not been diligent in following the rules I have set. But it is also true that every loss that I suffer is helping me become more disciplined and more systematic in my trading.

Short Term Tactical Trade Call: Long EURO at 1.3450, Target 1.3550/1.3650, Stop 1.3420/1.34. Its a high risk situation given Spain's downgrade on Friday. Rationale: Developments over the weekend (Merkel-Sarkozy joint announcement) specifying end October to sort out europe's problems 'for...

Thanks very much for your appreciation and other useful remarks. It helps to have some positive thoughts. :)

One silver lining is, my market read for capturing large moves this week was spot on. I still couldn't make money since my account size is so small and I had to cut positions when they turned against me, before moving in my initial direction. Specific examples were: 1. I went long ES around...

Update for week 10 ending Oct 8, 2011 : -600$ for the week. It was a losing week financially but a winning week from the reinforcement of learning. Simply put - I lost money because I broke my rules. It hurts a lot and this hurt is good, since it reinforces the connection in the brain that...