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Really? If my debit spread expires ITM, I only break even? Do you even have a shred of a clue? Explain yourself. I dare you.

I don't agree. I find that I can get a better R:R with debit spreads. This is real world trading, not some theoretical result. I can hit very close if not on the middle of the bid:ask on either spread and the debit tends to work out just a bit better. Of course, closing fees must be...

All I can do is look at the bid/ask as reported and see where my fill was. It was smack in the middle. I'm sure the market makers took some too but as retail traders we can only work with what we see. My expectation calculation includes the purchase bid/ask. It reflects the PRICE I PAID. Not...

Please explain how expectation does not address risk & reward, bang for the buck, or whatever else you want to call it. I would honestly like to hear a rational explanation for not trading ITM debit spreads when they typically have the highest expectation. If you disagree with that statement...

WTF does that mean? What reason have I given you to say that I'm "impermeable"? You don't know me from Adam. I showed the expectation. I told you that hitting the middle of the bid-ask spread is not that difficult. Are you calling me a liar?

My purchase landed right in the middle of the bid-ask. oX has a "walk the limit" feature on spreads which actually works pretty well. Furthermore, the bid-ask on a near-expiry ATM FXI put is over 15%, so it's not like there are no headwinds there, either.

Risk and reward don't tell the whole story. You need to consider expectation. Your odds of profitability are much lower than mine. When I put on my debit spread, the expectation of FXI expiring below 42 ($10 profit) was 85%. The expectation of it expiring above $42.50 ($40 loss) was 9%. The...

Perfect. I bought the 42/42.5 Jul15 put debit spread for 40 cents earlier today at $39.97, so we'll see which strategy works out. fxfx is aiming for the home run, I'm playing expectation.

Really? I can't make money off the fact that, long term, the S&P 500 or the Dow tend to trend upward? Surely I'm not the only one who knows this.

So, Black Monday?

Maybe you should take it up with the person who hijacked the thread, which wasn't me.

Ha! I'm pretty risk averse. It's just the tease of the "what if"?

I get it . . . we're just talking about REALLY BIG NUMBERS when compared to my account. Like, almost equal. The doomsday scenarios start to spin up. Plus, much like standing on the edge of a cliff and wondering "why don't I just jump", I have to talk myself out of taking the giant...

It would be a lot better for everyone involved if OTM-Options would stop bashing every other trading technique known to man. There is room for all.

I get very nervous trading large notional positions in my own account. Last week I put on a DITM bull call spread in PCLN, with what I perceived was positive expectancy. Because it was a tight spread, the P/L at expiry was something I could handle in terms of my account size, but the giant...

There are any number of ways to construct a position which profits when volatility drops. Consider calls and puts: their value rises in a rising volatility environment, all other things being equal. They have positive "vega". So if you're long a call or put, your position gains value as...

Just habit. Long Jul 14 calls.

Not exactly. I am attempting to bound the future price of the underlying as +/- X StDev. StDev is a function of volatility, so therein lies the question. I like the idea of comparing HV to IV to get a feel for where IV might go. It's all (seemingly) a bit of an art, and of course the model...

Got a recent number on ^VIX? I'm long July $14 calls. Need some good news. ;)

That is a really nice summary.