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Individual examples are meaningless. A statistically significant number of examples are needed to determine expectancy. Inherently, then, your example misses the fact that on many occasions the market reaches the lower target not the higher target.

If there is a time/price span between optimal exit and optimal reverse entry, then you have not precisely pinpointed one or the other or both.

Thank you, illiquid. I just read this whole thread waiting for someone to make that point. You CANNOT rationally support scaling in and not support scaling out. Now, as it happens, in my experience, I think most folks tend to scale out too aggressively. (Certainly, that has been my...

Who the fuck knows? What drives any buying in any market? We'll probably find out eventually.

No one I know really pays attention to NOAA's long-term forecasts. Also, I really don't think much of the oil/natgas relationship. The correlation is not really dependable.

Even assuming you're right, it doesn't follow that this move is, for some reason, unsustainable. It doesn't support your bear case whatsoever.

I'm not saying anything about where the market will go, but in my very humble opinion, you make a lot of unwarranted assumptions in your analysis. So what if open interest decreased? You have no idea who is closing them out or why.

Is that your criteria for identifying a "fake?"

"its will start to get very bearish in the cash startingthe second week of nov into the end of the month." That won't necessarily be bearish for futures, though.

Why do you think it's a "panic" of any sort? Why isn't just an up day in natty. This is not a move of unusual size in natty.

I don't see anything that would make me think that.

I agree that getting into trading without good programming skills SEVERELY limits your options and income potential. As far as how much you need, it depends. Some trading positions require only light programming, VBA for simple analysis on data in Excel/SQL. You could achieve this level...

I tend not to try to reason these things out. I simply look at the past pattern of numbers versus price and infer accordingly. However, to answer your question, the lack of obligation to close out contracts for hedgers is irrelevant. Only .3% of NYMEX contracts get delivered on. That...

I'm actually still bullish based, in part, on the CoT. The primary use of the CoT, I believe, is to compare all the groups' current position sizes to their historical position sizes. If all the groups are at a historical extreme, i.e., if they have committed all the money they have to a...

I agree with rosy2. I am a market maker.

Globex Nymex is down. It is unclear when it will reopen.

See what I mean about cash? HH prices have shot up 42% this week, and futures have gone up also. There is no predictive value in the spread in this market (at least not obvious predictive value.)

Man, this just sounds like purposeful disinformation.

With yesterday's move, I'd expect a test of 7.70. IMHO.

Okay, but you still don't know how convergence will take place. The futures could move up and HH gas could move up even more to catch up with it. I mean, if you have some kind of study you've done showing a reliable statistical tendency in this relationship, I'm all ears, but if you're...