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Don't forget that the folks who bring you the Beige Book are from the same organization that brings you the Open Market Committee - and neither is going to say anything that makes the other looki bad. The Fed is a bureacracy and has a vested interest in using words like 'moderate', 'somewhat'...

I thought I'd throw in some anecdotal evidence from suburban phila ... economy can only be described as strong. RE - lots of inventory, but stuff is moving. The realtors I know are all as busy as they've ever been, closing lots of deals, minting money. Comm'l re - lots of vacancies, even...

Uh, no. Einhorn probably has risked like 2 or 3 basis points of his firm's capital on these options. They're stuck in a drawer somewhere, and if he's right, he'll pull 'em out and cash 'em in. If not, he's lost a couple of percent.

Yes, they were wrong then. We know that. Are the green shooters/talking heads/strategists/corporate spinmeistes/... wrong now. We don't know and won't know until its too late to profit from it. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I talked w/ML about the Einhorn trade last winter. Its a small investment world out there, and I'm guessing that Einhorn got the idea for it from the same place I got the idea for it - from a November 2008 article in Grant's. Its a 10 year 'swaption' on the US 10 year note struck at 6%. It...

More Hendry clips. He's still pretty cocky, but definitely has his tail between his legs a bit. https://self-evident.org/?p=691

These guys are scumbags, but just small fry. In fact, Bernie Madoff was small fry. The big crooks are still in charge, whether it be on Wall Street or in their new digs in DC. A couple were forced into retirement, but they're yucking it up from their mansions in Palm Beach, Aspen, and Nantucket.

Barron's cover story this week is urging Uncle Ben to jack up the FF rate to 2% immediately.:D

I read this too and it looks good. Another point I take is that life went on, just at a lower level. Businesses were still formed - some failed and some went bust. Folks started families, went to ball games, etc ... Bull markets occurred in stocks, bonds and various commodities. Life just...

Hugh Hendry was on CNBC Europe on Friday. There are a few clips. Here is one of them ... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBkbtmLjPpE

This is a CLASSIC article. A must read. Is some of Talibi's rhetoric over the top ... yes. Still a classic. IMHO, while the artcle spends a great deal of time talking about naked short selling, the overriding theme is the 'fakeness' of our modern economy. "House of Cards" may have been...

http://barrons.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-ER669_baCove_BA_20091016225052.jpg http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125573856421291217.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight

Japan has its own problems. David Einhorn and Kyle Bass, among others, have both placed wagers on way higher JGB rates and hyperinflation in Japan as the gov't debt load combined w/an aging population and a slow economy threaten to overwhelm the govt's ability to pay.

That's good stuff from Desmond. To summarize: at market index tops, very few stocks in the big averages are making new highs, and many have already rolled over, some significantly. Now I would be interested in how often this setup gives a false signal. In other words, lets look at this from...

That's a direct quote from Paulson's lunch talk at Grant's Investment Conference three weeks ago. I'm not sure where you got it, but whoever is writing that investment letter better be careful. I don't think Grant's would be pleased.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/13/AR2009101303224.html?hpid=topnews Don't Reinflate the Old Bubbles By Steven Pearlstein Wednesday, October 14, 2009 Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested Tuesday that, despite a 50 percent run-up in stock prices that has left...

When Exxon was raking in billions during the oil bull market, folks were practically rioting in the street and congressmen were threatening windfall profits taxes. JPM is making billions because the Fed is printing money and giving it to them for free to play the carry trade with, and few are...

Bullard from the Fed ... http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/feds-bullard-falling-unemployment-rate.html “It is a little disappointing that private-sector economists are thinking so much about when we are going to move our fed funds rate up,” he said. “We are at zero. We are...

Cramer went on his show that night and declared the start of the of a new bull market w/the Dow back at 14K by summer 09.:D

I just posted the article as an example of folks who are taking the other side of the trade. I'm firmly in the camp that believes that the production of "easy" or "cheap" oil has peaked. I don't consider this a theory like global warming - it is a fact. Its difficult to accept for free market...