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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    What else are they going to say? "Thank goodness he's out. Now we're going to let the euro go.":D Not selling EURCHF here, but at some point, traders may get a whiff this is not a one-way deal anymore and then we'll see how "committed" the SNB and the gov't is.
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hildy out. There are clearly powerful groups in Switzerland who aren't happy with the hundreds of billions in trading losses by the SNB and now Hildy's policies mean buying even more euros? The whole thing with the wife gave them all they needed to oust him. Pegs/floors are easier maintained...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Closed all positions except for a few OOM puts on AUD and EUR. I didn't want to get in so deep in the markets this early this year. Need to clear my head. Headed to the beach in 2 weeks for awhile. Going to try (:) ) and refrain from doing anything other than reading and (lots of) pontificating...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Interesting piece from my man Mike Riddell. French 5 year bonds now yield more than EFSF 5 year paper. Since France guarantees EFSF debt and would probably cut those guarantees if things got bad, EFSF paper is basically subordinated French paper. No way it should be yielding less than France...
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Actually might be the time to cover shorts. Euro is already off 300 pips from Tuesday afternoon. These NFP days are often a great time to cover things like this. For the moment, I will remain as is (subject to change from the moment I hit 'submit').
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The euro/risk tether now looks to be officially broken. Yahtzee! :D
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm not sure who you think you're talking to. Despite my obvious abilities, I'm not a major PM, (that's the dude here posting under the dhpar alias) At most, I might have like 2 or 3 open positions - and very basic ones (I'm pretty sure I know second to second how eurodollars or the EUR is...
  8. R

    BAC last bid 4.98, S&P downgrades 37 global banks...

    Obama mass refi plan rumors making the rounds.
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    A rare move for me, just bought shares in Zillow (Z). I've loved the site for years and it gets better every month, it seems. I've been waiting for a spot to buy ever since its IPO. This company is wildly disruptive to the horrid real estate agent business in this country. If the managers play...
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Again, depends on your style of trade. Other than my long-term stock holdings (whose price I rarely look at), I have very few positions open and with the slightest bit of calculation in my head, can glance at the front page of CBSMarketwatch and figure where I stand in a few seconds. I just have...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Markets have a way of accelerating this sort of thing the next time around. As I recall JGBs were still yielding north of 3% in 1996, still plenty of room between that and 0. Euroyen futures markets at that time still priced in a series of rate hikes. Now we have the U.S. 10-year already camped...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Let's not count the chips until the game's over. I seriously doubt anybody has been short JGBs since 1995. Punters have taken their shots, moved onto something else, and maybe taken another shot again. Positive carry is a lovely idea and certainly a necessary part of a portfolio, especially a...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Read that a couple of days ago. The most interesting take (mostly because I agree!) is his view that valuations have big caps poised to do pretty well over the coming years despite the crap outlook for the world economy. As for the Japan thing, I expect better from you (and Bridgewater...
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Absolutely.
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It really depends how you trade. I have found such focus on day-to-day performance to be profoundly negative for my results over the years. On my twitter stream today, I couldn't believe all the chatter about the "move in the euro", "the short squeeze in the euro", ... what have you. The...
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Is there an easy way to figure this out on IB? I'm sure I could recreate using daily statements, but made several withdrawals through the year and am too lazy to go back through and figure that out.
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Market gods bearing gifts in the New Year. Getting back into AUD short at $1.0380 (sorry, GoC, not full position yet!). Just your run-of-the-mill 500 pip rally in the AUD based on nothing but thin end-of-the-year/beginning-of-the-new-year positioning and stop-running.:D
  18. R

    This is Why U.S. college educations are worthless.

    http://runt-of-the-web.com/the-hypocritical-world-of-hipster-barista :p :D :p
  19. R

    This is Why U.S. college educations are worthless.

    "The world needs ditchdiggers too." A generation or two has been sold this bill of crap about college and post-grad education. Now we've got tens of thousands of lawyers with nothing to do, so they run around making everyone's lives miserable. In the meantime, good luck getting a fucking...
  20. R

    The Federal Reserve's Covert Bailout of Europe

    Tim Geithner has built his entire career on this premise. Why do you think Greenspan, Bernanke, Obama, and the bank industry consider him so valuable? Why has the entire administration turned over with the exception of him (and Holder - the Geithner of the DOJ)?
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