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Whats your expectancy? Discretionary?

How long is a string? It would work fine for some and be catastrophic for others.

Just because you have run simulations for many years doesn’t mean anything at all objectively since only you know what went into them. The fact of the matter is that if you run insanely high leverage and the market goes in your favor you make basically infinite returns. Is it easy? No. Can it be...

Statistically it is a small chance any trader will be able to pull off big R:R trades with decent win rate. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t people who rise above mediocrity and not because of coincidence.

Form your own opinion and act on it.

If you were better at shorting stocks than longing commodities it would have been easier to do so. And vice versa. Also going long commodities would require quite a different strategy than shorting stocks.

If you want to average down you have to have a strategy with a clear goal in mind which averaging down will help you fulfill. Just doing it because you want will get mixed results.

Sure, not all systems with positive expectancy are traded profitably, but all profitably traded systems have positive expectancy. My original point however was just to emphasize that win rate is not nearly as useless when combined with R:R as it is stand alone.

No I am talking about the win rate. Obviously a system with a win rate above 55% (you can achieve 45-55% win rate by random entry so it should be 55%+) and an average RR of 1:1 or higher is going to be a profitable system unless it stands the chance of being wiped out in a black swan type event...

Because a buy and hold equity indice strategy usually deals with the drawdowns by averaging down in bear markets. Since you usually won't use leverage for a buy and hold equity indice strategy you won't get wiped out either unless that indice becomes worthless.

Sure when you look at it individually but a 55%+ win rate combined with a RR of at least 1:1 is a pretty significant statistic.

What you are describing are merely the evolutionary phases every trader must go through before making it. Going from ‘tell me what to do!’ to ‘tell me how to do it!’ and then realizing you have to do it all yourself is a process most traders go through. It will probably continue on for as long...

If you really want to learn how to trade read or listen to trade your way to financial freedom by van k Tharp and don’t put it away until you are completely finished with it. If you are unable to complete the book thoroughly or put off giving it a serious go you may have some underlying...

You can make great money in any holding time, none are really inherently better than others. What's really important is that you choose a style which you are personally compatible with and will be able to continue using for a long time.

I think we might see before the end of the day in the S&P

I understand what you mean, but calling market direction is not what trading is about. And probably not what Peter Brandt is interested in doing. Also define what calling market direction means to you, do you mean long or short term? How much does price have to move one way before price has...

You contradict yourself, having +50% win rate does not guarantee a good risk reward setup. If you can trade H&S with an average of 4R per win and 30% win chance you will be proftiable trading that pattern.

For me it wasn't a case of learning another 'thing' to become profitable, I became profitable after all the information I had collected about the markets coalesced in my mind and I truly understood it.

Looking real good for the bulls here, closed that IR drop in a single day, getting close to closing out all my shorts at a loss and going balls deep long for a retry of the tops.

agreed, should see atleast a 23.6 retrace of this rush up.