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Perfectly happy. In fact, 99.5% of all traders will envy me. But: my experience shows that market regimes can change drastically over time, and so the performance of any systematic trading approach that does not autmatically adjust. What's your observation on that? (Just started reading the...

Dear djporter91, let me give you an analogy with the music field, since I am a musician myself: Your aim at making 5% per day on average, day-tarding the ES futures - imagine this for a while: after a musical performance of yours, most of the audience leaves stunned, half of them tears in their...

Just scrolled through this thread to get an idea. Will delve in later. Extremely valuable and informative this topic (unlike the bulk in ET), as I always wondered about all this hate towards trading courses in general, "fake"gurus, books on trading, etc. Suspect very few aspiring traders are...

Exactly. Generally, one may say so, but I am not using it. As soon as US opens, NQ & ES are beasts on their own, irrespective of what DAX has done in Europe.

Hi Jan, please report, how is it going with your approach, 1 month+ since your first post? The strategy seems clear & simple enough, the volatility of the markets is back and here to stay for a while, all good.

All true. The key that works for me intraday is: find those occasions when the odds are far better than a coin toss and squeeze the hell out of them. Took me half a decade to figure this out. For example, I am able to get +10 pips on EURUSD, risking -9 pips with about 70% hit rate, 5...

Experience. About Mistakes: define - what constitutes a mistake in trading FOR YOU?

It's easy to lose money trading, whatever the method. Period. Daytrading - the opportunity factor is the best here. But, one should be very picky when NOT to day-trade. Not all hours are good for daytrading, not all days are good for daytrading. Swing trading on the other hand can also be very...

Several weeks from now a topping consolidation, then back down to take the March lows by a couple-a-hundred ES points, will be a slower decline, lasting many months. Then an epic rally for 1-2 years, making New All Time Highs...

Yes, the hedging positions (VIX or some OS) are to be held anywhere from 1 week to one month, until my filter turns RED and switch to System B. By that time the vol is always high enough and System B trades very profitably in both directions. Both Sys A & B are strictly regular session only, no...

I see what you mean. It's getting more and more math-intense though. For example, finding the sweet spot of % allocation of equity to the insurance play... also, got some difficulties tracking the past performance of some options strategies... busy weeks ahead :) How about buying VIX Calls...

Good points, thanks. No, it is impossible to foretell when a "black swan" event will strike. Tweaking System A itself to provide for such an event degrades its overall performance. Your next suggestion - using low cost spreads seems very viable. I'm just starting getting better grip on spreads...

Happy Holidays to all! I've seen very experienced traders around here, unlike many other places, and since these two weeks might be not so busy - I'm about to ask for some advice on options, if I may. Here is my case: recently developed two intraday strategies for NQ/QQQ, decent results, no...

His positions WILL make good money July-August-September-October, with or without new ATHs prior to that.

Now this drop in S&P500 is for real!!

Well, my mistake, for such a long-term charts it is better to apply Log Scaling for the price axis; then the Wave-d and the whole thing looks more normal. And the fibo relations will also change. As for the other indecies, Dow, NQ, Transports - they all are a partial representation of the...

Fibo, I see your point. Unfortunately, the A-B-C formation for Wave-4 scenario have several flaws - mainly too short (time-wise) compared to 1-2-3- prior to y.2000. How about we are still in Wave-4, a heavily skewed to the upside Triangle, currently in late stages of its smaller wave-d (see the...

Sure. The 2009 Low is too far back for this ever expanding and improving World to return back to. But after the current long-term Bull (born 2009) is done, yes, a 50% drop for years - ugly, but likely. Then a new Bull and so it goes. The increased volatility since Dec-2017 is surely a turning...

I am 99% sure the 2009 Low will NEVER EVER be taken, ever. On our death beds the Dow Jones will be flirting with the 100 000 mark.

I mean, if Wave-C down takes out the December low by a tad and you put down your other millions, and it really is just a Flat Correction before the final stage of the (frankly, quite old & ripe) Bull Market - it WILL hurt. Maybe for couple of more years, but with limited upside potential.