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this "future looking" stuff is done all the time. I did it a while back and everything looked good until real trading. One way to minimize this bias is to reference the bar before and STOP there and trade off of it. so instead of BUY if > ATR...Buy > ATR(-1).ie previous days atr.

Kim.. been a while since I looked at this. So this only comes into play during earnings season which means what like 4 months of the year you got something to do? Your article says it is possible 10% per month.. don't you mean 10% per month for the 4 months you are engaged in this earnings...

Kim's last post is what I mean by free(ish) gamma rent. IVTrader made a science out of this years ago. Alex u around? If you can chart a straddle, you can sense when it has stopped going down as it embarks on the "IV ramp"

Why not time the straddle buy AFTER the earnings data is announced and ride the free gamma rent? You eliminate a tail risk of E/D being changed?

Can someone check these returns please. I am not getting why the May 16,2018 post earnings open is 6.78%. If it closes 29.63 pre-earnings and it open next day at 31.96.. (31.96-29.63)/(29.63)= 7.8%. What did i miss?

If he is the same prae whose first name starts with HA then he is the one I met on ET, then at security desk on the NYBOT floor where I took him on a 30-45 min tour. He seems like a nice guy --one that you would know would go places one day in the near future. That being said dest has a point...

Your max gain will come likely in the waning moments of the options life. Imagine goog at 1169.95 with 1 hour to go, that short strike will be so volatile in terms of delta so you can't capture your max gain yet. With 15 minutes to go, you will then see your profit graph accelerate towards max...

At least it is in 1 lots. I remember years back creating a Sterling API on 500 shares.. about 20 stocks.... bad quotes loaded ... instant execution on about 8 stocks at the opening.. instant RED all over the screen.. funny thing (not so funny then) was I had a "ka-ching" sound upon execution...

Agree with Robert... unwind the deep spreads first to prevent early exercise. I guess you can autoexercise your longs as offset (right Robert? ) BUT TOS charges you like $20/contract for it.. that will hurt! Look at the deltas anything +- 80 & unwind as a spread then the rest should be...

TheBigShort.. I thought so too, this is why I tried it first on TLT as a "proof of concept" ie that if it works best in illiquid, it must work bad in liquid. I WAS WRONG vis-a-vis buying the lows.

I used to think buying the high was an inferior strategy vs. buying a low. Psychologically, I like getting things at a "discount". Bad move.. at least for the tickers I follow. I did a research on TLT and suprisingly, buying the high with a 5% profit/loss stop performed much better than buy...

diff tickers have unique trend vs. chop days. From April 2017 to Sept 2017 , AAPL had its big moves on Wednesdays BUT shifted to fridays mid June onwards...The snip below shows two greens bars next to each other representing Fridays then Mondays. As you can see the left side of chart shows...

Your post says you are often faced with the dilemma of buying something at .04 expanding to 25 cents. Your approach is nice which is to take the risk out of it and ride the rest of the position. This means you have some ability to turn a way otm call calendar or put calendar (for that matter)...

you would want to alter iv per strike since each instrument have unique curves. In sugar and other softs, calls have higher iv's... in equities, opposite. In addition to what Baron suggested there are Excel plugins so you can really customize. Here is a screenshot of my XL sheet.In this snip, I...

JK what is CHFA? Chartered Financial analyst? I googled chfa and I am getting colorado housing ,Cascade Hospital for animals... :-) truetype, more info on that membership would be appreciated.

I am there!! :-)

not quite. Vega goes both ways. you can make or lose on it. Some traders trade it exclusively. Read up on the greeks-delta , gamma, vega, theta before trading. Options are complex and trader have many "vectors" to make $$. They can choose to expose their position to theta or gamma, or vega or...

downside of single vs vertical? - vega

I like your handle. if you are elitenapper, then I am superEliteNapper.... to answer your question, it depends on your future outlook of the stock. If you think it will continue to go lower, you could sell a lower vertical around the area you think it might stop and reverse (maybe some support...

IMHO, lots of moving parts in that kind of trade- you have the IV curve across the strikes to deal with as the price of the ticker moves up/down. At the same time, you have to deal with the base IV of the ATM that shifts up on AMZN bear moves, and shifts down on bull moves on the ticker. TO...