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Simple's post should be in some ET section for all to see...! :-)

If you have done well.. then stop trolling these boards and PROTECT YOUR IP. If your edge is truly replicable and valuable, email me and I can set up up with a blind template w/ generic triggers. It will cost you some in investing in a b'testing platform ~$350+ data, 1-2 months of learning to...

like i have trigger x > 100 and the backtest is 45%?win w avg pnl at $10 then i flip it x < 100 and across wak fowards and it jumps fr 45-58% that is big . i am like what if i add filter y and it jumps fr 58- 60! now i am in overoptimization zone!

MattZ nailed it .. extra filters invite curve fitting and overoptimization.. how do i know? years of making errors- my story!... make sure u walk forward at the least

If your wife is a developer/coder.. have a look at Amibroker. Pretty robust backteting platform and can do some pattern recognition. There are lots of stuff on the 'net specially from Indian programmers/traders where Amibroker seems to have a wider following. I have seen code for descending...

2 floor trading addages- "Risk not thy whole wad" and " Your first loss tends to be your smallest loss" . 2nd one should be of particular interest to premium selling on low IV regime. It works a lot till it does'nt and when it does'nt look out below...

What you are trying to do is what I've been doing forever in the soft's pits and now am implementing in the non-softs since I am now off floor. Check out my site..edgequestllc.com. Most scanners, systems in this space trade based on skew harvesting, iv/hv ,etc .. few on the prob distro of the...

Drcha.. agree w you on the timing of the flies. I am a "disciple" of John Bender who posited that the money in options is made by predicting a stocks prob distribution and using options to harness that model. The issue w naked straddle is even though it has a good prob of profit your first trade...

Hi. You might have to settle with put verticals then to somewhat protect your portfolio. Consult your financial planner on this one due to the amalgam of factors in play.

DEPENDING on the IV regime, why not just put on a skipped strike fly with the bigger debit on the side you don't expect it to land ie the call strike and put the "sweet spot" on the distro you think it will land? or calendar...?

Since you effectively bought the ATM call for $0 (courtesy of NFLX) this is what your risk graph would look like..

if those calls are unrestricted and does not violate black out rules like ironchef said, I don't see why you can't short calls against it and buy puts.. With the collar on you (ie long put financed by short call) u would have a call vertical- the one u own thru ESOP vs short calls at a higher...

ironchef.. all I had then on the floor was a bunch of sheets... printed with diff base vols in case market got crazy that day and the iv shifts... Every 1/2 hour, my clerk would refresh my positions on paper, and I had to dissect out the reversals, synthetics,etc.. The big guys timber hill,CRT...

interesting ... Question.. Other than your desire to sell them slowly for taxes , are there vesting periods where u absolutely can't sell them? If there is no lockup, you can sell calls above it. but your broker which I assume is separate from the broker holding your ESOP will ding you with...

When I was a MM in the soft's pits, big orders would come in from the trade houses to buy hundreds of contracts at a strike and often times in order to participate, I had no choice but to eat contracts beyond my comfort zone which was about 50 contracts naked, 100 on spreads.. I had to put on...

:D..me too..

hey Sakti. If you look at my post I did not dispute your assertion that on a bull move your spread is inferior.,, in fact that is a better do. ... all I am saying is that a bear diagonal will work on bull moves as well under certain iv regimes under certain price action.... and yes i kinda have...

bear call diagonal spread work all the time on bullish moves too.. very well in fact.. unless it rips .. here is a 106/107 diag if XYZ goes up to 107 slowly,, you can harvest some $$$ and roll up.. if you are wrong you lose very very little. Big problem if 108 next day on a gap up.

oh yes that would work I meant diagonal on the opposite end.. ie 115 on the w2 strike... Here you are embedding a long vertical. but this is a higher debit which you will eat if xyz goes down .. plus you are longer vega so if XYZ moves up, you'd get dinged a little due to up move....

You can't avoid that loss on a gap up...You would get killed in a diagonal since you have an embedded short vertical in there. There is no adjustment there other than eat your $1 debit. If it "meanders" up, depending on the time till open trade date, you can take $$ off the table and reposition...