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Perhaps God is short options as well. And he has more capital and more theta than us. Statements like "I haven't blown up yet" are not good trading or investing comments. There is an element of luck and an element of skill in every trade. We don't know which is being used. The market...

So entertainment working at love is the highest ideal of our society? Those must be the best jobs for both men and women. Freud would then run a bunch of porn sites if he were here today?

True, to those who have never done it, it seems that you can't know the correct path and your points are great. There is no way to judge the conclusions incorrect either by the same logic. In the end, if you are happy almost all the time and peaceful with the decisions you made in your life...

Sadly, one can only hear their own tiny inner voice when all the other sounds that drown it out are quiet for some time. (The drowning is intentional for most I think since they don't want to hear it because of the implications. It can't be undone.) Waiting to die is one of the most quiet times...

Those B*******; they killed Kenny!

I enjoyed reading this. Thanks for posting it. I retired in 2005 and have tried to tell people some of these points but many will not listen. They are too caught up in the mad race that is our society. One had a heart attack and suddenly caught on to what I was telling him. He told me...

Don't hold someone that is a wasting asset long term. Look for good fundamentals, solid growth potential, and someone you would be comfortable holding for a long time. Warren Buffet style.

I completely agree with you. (LOL sorry! I know that in fine ET tradition, I am supposed to call you names and argue particularly when I know I am wrong.) At the risk of sounding arrogant (see a previous post) these are the two lessons that I took from their defeat: 1) Almost all...

With respect, I would consider this comment pure hindsight bias. In an alternative reality, we might be praising LTCM as "the smartest guys in the room". Just my two cents worth.

Great points. Taleb's system is not winning either - the point of this threads' question. One more point. LTCM was taken out by other traders who guessed their methodology and pushed them off the cliff as I seem to recall reading. Arrogance fails. Humility wins. The efficient market...

Make up the signs - we are the 97.5%!

For further information on this method please google search maclean's retirement 649 http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/08/retirement-649/ 'A 58-year-old underground welder in Timmins, Ont., jokes that lottery tickets comprise “the high-risk portion of my investment portfolio.”' Of...

Curious that both LTCM and his system would both be negative expectation. Could it be the system is a very small part of successful trading? So Bill, if I understand your reply, most traders are actually gamblers who think that they are traders?

Wasn't the downgrade of the US credit rating August last year unexpected? If not, then why would the market drop so dramatically. The market didn't appear to discount that event and seasonality predicted a year different from what occurred. Could you please outline what you mean by a gambling...

If I recall, the bookies liked to help their odds a bit with some points shaving. At least I thought there were indictments against refs for making a couple of key calls a game. Of course that kind of stuff never happens in the trading game because the regulators are always watching carefully...

There was someone who spoke of a bookmaker analogy in an "options edge" thread and was clearly told that he was wrong. Oh, wait it was me. :p Maverick. It appears that you do understand the true game. Interesting posts!

This was another of my first lessons. I carefully charted and followed the top annual predictors in a newspaper I subscribed to and after 5 or so years realized that if it is meant to be, it is up to me. I stopped looking for others to trade for me. My account then was so small, that I...

Interestingly enough, I was once told that this is how most brokers get started as well. Make a prediction, wait to see what happens, divide your phone list 50-50. Make another prediction, wait to see what happens, divide your phone list 25% 75%. And so on. After 5 predictions, there are some...

Test it out all you like, to show conclusively it will not work. Life is just not as simple as some of the people on the planet. This kind of reasoning is typical of beginners. The market actually has three directions - not two. Most have no idea what they really trade nor who they really...

Yes Gster I have had something similar happen with the Nexus platform on option trading. In fact, if you trade long enough, you will see everything happen. I have had trades reversed because the market maker "hit the wrong button". (To date, none of my hitting the wrong button orders have...