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OMG! I wasn't aware that clowns were a corrupt organization. They always look so happy and everything. I guess looks can deceive.

Leaving the other 95% of course. Thanks for helping me think.

Your comment triggered a new thought for me. The only thing a viable system has to outlast is the life of the currency that it earns. So if the drawdown system failure lifetime is less than the lifetime of the currency or the person using the system, then certain mathematical failure is a moot...

Interesting comment. I believe that the first sentence is mathematically true but the conclusion doesn't follow. What you are saying is that on a long enough time frame all systems will hit any pre-given drawdown target. Such is the nature of trading. Every trade you make has some luck...

Gee I like this. Alexander Elder talks about AA meetings in a similar bent.

Nope, without the 95% there would be no 5% (in a zero sum game) so take a loser to lunch and encourage him to try again. I take my money from other traders by being better at trading than they are.

Lucias, why not get your friends to write in and vouch for you. Using logic like yours - you don't exist either because we haven't met you. So far NoDoji wins the reality contest hands down. Do you realize what top-earning traders think when you post something like "I can predict the...

Well there goes my edge ......

It is a great question and answering the right questions can make you a ton of money. Have you looked at your premise about high vol in rising and high vol in falling markets? Take a charting program and see if that is really true. Also, checkout if there is any difference before and after...

Your point is valid. However, remember that you are trading signal in noise and the noise dominates at too small a level.

Isn't the solution obvious? Divide your account into 50 - 10K accounts. In short order you will have every dollar ever made with the FED supplying more for you. The difference between 500K trading and 10K trading, in my opinion, is that those using 10K have a tiny part inside them that says...

Because, like lotteries, hope feels better than reality. Almost everyone thinks they are the smartest in the room.

No. The reason is one of a) manipulation b) the FED is buying all the SPY to hide how bad the world economy is. c) Obama's friends (wallstreet - isn't that a surprise - no convictions) are buying everything to ensure he gets back in. d) all of the above

Exactly and this was the precise point of the excellent post of NP not equal to P that people couldn't understand. Chess is like that also. I think that HFT and computers has swung the court in favor of discretionary traders away from system traders. Both can succeed, but one is much...

A true story: I submitted several months of trades to a fellow who offered to coach me to get better. He analyzed them and did a tremendous job with lots of complex computer analysis. We went over all the measurements carefully. He noted only one specific oddity about the trades. At the...

I am not sure how to score this. My capital has steadily grown since trading well was always the objective, never having the most capital or making it quickly. Of course, I started very small - hardly enough to live on, trading part time while I worked in the day. I have never had a drawdown...

Perhaps we can all start by treating people better on these forums. We share one thing, no matter what - we will all end up the same. That can be a humbling thought.

We agree for the most part. I am curious about your thoughts on the reason alpha is there. Market makers trade differently from most of us here. The assumption that they do the same things we do causes many to lose money. To clarify. I didn't say that nobody else knows these things, merely...

Thanks for the information. I can't say much more without getting into a true edge in options (some things I know, that are not generally known). I appreciate and value your comments.

Ahhh, but haven't the market makers taken the same test and have already priced in this tiny inefficiency? (Sounds like an angels on pin heads question or a zeno's race question.) I would have answered Mu (Zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance) - neither yes or no.