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With the fed funds rate at a negative real rate, and expectations of at least 6 more months of it, and a huge bailout of the banks, I would think there is going to be a massive credit bubble formed again very soon. The question is where? Banks will shy away from anything to do with...

I've been wondering when traders on the GS trading desk would start to get overconfident. They blew the oil trade out of the park. But it seems they have been run over with a freight train now. The dollar, commodities will probably be their achilles heel at the next earnings release. They...

Well, it depends on the instrument you are trading. These spikes could be due to program trading. There are ways to predict when buy and sell programs will come into the market, but I will not share that info. It looks to me like you're either trading stocks that are too thin, or at times of day...

It's not just volume alone. It's active buying or selling. On an upside spike, you will get many orders hitting the offer and trading through, also many market orders, while at the same time, sellers stepping away from the offer.

I just bought some SLV at 12.68. This commodities fall/dollar rally is related to Russia's behavior. This is an overshoot.

I'm looking at the thirty year, and it seems a bit overbought. Taking into account the huge move into the dollar, it seems that the bonds were the first destination, but I would think that soon enough, these trades will have to correct somewhat. What's your analysis?

Actually, the csi 300 at 2381 is looking very attractive. I'm going to start scaling into hoping to build the bulk of the position if it hits 2000.

This is the end of the downside move in crude. There is plenty of accumulation going on in the past week.

The faster they climb, the harder they fall.

Haha!

Not oil, commodity prices. Look at corn, wheat, soybean futures etc. If farmers can't get enough for their crops to offset the cost of fertilizer, guess what they will cut first.

It seems like it a big pump before the naked short restrictions end tomorrow. I am all in, short.

I added more puts today in xly. This is a massive short squeeze that is over today.

Isn't it already obvious. The credit squeeze is causing the housing prices to fall, when they finally decide house prices are at a good value, credit will expand again, and all will be well in the world.

I tend to see it as the dollar affecting all commodities. Interest rate differentials can put pressure or a floor on currencies. The fed slashed rates so quickly versus other major currencies like the Euro, that it caused a huge flight from the dollar. The Euro is not much of a better currency...

I think most traders come to this forum to see what other people are looking at, to bounce ideas off others, and sometimes to help another trader with a psychological issue. We don't come here to give handouts and wipe your ass for you. I for one, have paid my dues with drawdowns and just the...

This is an olympic rally, nothing more. We're right up against the daily 200 period moving average in the ES. China has stopped selling their dollars and allowed the Yuan to weaken a bit, but the federal reserve does not want a strong dollar. That would kill this economy, exports are the only...

Stop putting on broker side stops. Just use your head, stop out yourself, also set your stops a little wider. 10 points YM, gives you no room to breathe.

Good luck with your long positions after AIG's turd. I loaded up on the short side into the close today in just about every etf and index there is. These short squeezes happen because it makes it hard for newbies to get short, they get exuberant and confident, buy into the BS, then get run over...

Really, who trades off upgrades and downgrades? If anything, use them to take profits when you get a pop, or if short if you get a sell off. Those guys know nothing about trading and timing, look at the performance for the past year alone. If anything that buying into the earnings gave me the...