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So what do you tell people--have you been able to come up with anything that does not make them shrug and look at you oddly? When I am asked this, I concede that it's gambling for anyone who does not understand what they are doing. But I can't explain the difference in a sentence or two.

Try looking beyond your own back yard for a minute. The concept of countries is outdated, as this whole crisis shows. We are all interconnected. The only reason these socialist states can exist is because the US has assumed the role of being the cops for the entire free world. So we are...

I had a strange experience several years ago with the William Blair International Growth Fund. I got a statement and found that $15K had been added to my fund. When I finally raised someone on the phone who had the authority to handle it--which required me calling a few times and nobody...

Yes, yes.

I don't think overall profitability is the only issue. No matter how successful you are, you will have some days and or months with negative return. If you are a successful trader, then you already have the temperament and the patience to get through these times and the faith in your system...

I have only been trading options for about 3 years, and during most of that time, volatility has either been too crazy to trade anything, or has been falling consistently. So I have not had an opportunity to develop the skills for long vega positions as much as for short vega. Lately I have...

Well, yes. It has been nice here in the doldrums, but I'm not dumb enough to get complacent about the direction of volatility. Got to be ready for the wind to change....

I think it is fine to have CNBC or Bloomberg on, as long as you don't actually use them for anything. In fact, I find them comforting. I have found that if you listen to one of them all day long, you will eventually hear everything--every conflicting opinion will be expressed, which means that...

would you like fries with that knee, sir?

Over the long haul, you will have a hell of a time making that much return. You might manage it for a few months, but it's very unlikely over time. Why are you asking us what stocks to use? Do you think anyone on this board knows what any stock is going to do tomorrow? They don't. I...

Well, I would certainly agree that you are totally responsible for them while they are children. If you haven't done the groundwork by the time they are 18, there is no point in trying to do it then. Even when they are adults, your guidance (if they will listen to it) is essential. But...

Isn't the fact that you are even making this statement the crux of the problem? By the time they are going to college, they are old enough to f-up all on their own. Are you going to continue taking responsibility for their errors until the day they bury you, or are you going to let them...

Agree. I went to med school with some people who had huge loans. One of them, 23 years later, lives in a 2-bedroom apt. She is basically spending her working years paying her loans instead of buying a house. Those are the trade-offs. But this story of this doc totally ignoring her loans...

Yes, and the fact that reasonably priced adjustments cause your position to enlarge, so that you have to trade in a pretty small size to be sure to be able to adjust when necessary. This will reduce returns, but should not stop you.

Yes, I trade some longer time horizons with part of my stash. PM me if you like.

Zero. Expectancy is not the same as probability. Expectancy is the probability times the payoff amount. For an unbiased coin with a $1 risk and $1 reward, the expectancy is: prob of win*payoff of win + prob of loss*payoff of loss= 0.5*$1 + 0.5*(-$1) = 0 For all 'high-probability'...

Coyote, I do not think you made a mistake. You were very kind and a good friend to this guy. The fact that things came out the way they did was entirely his problem, and due to his character flaws, as evidenced by his blaming something on you that is entirely his fault. Also, his wife is...

Exactly

Would you rather have a system that nets you 1-2% per month, or one that provides significantly more, but introduces the risk of losing your entire account? Because if you are using everything in the account as margin on condors, the latter is what you are doing. Personally, in your situation...

Tao, Pretty much any options trade has about a zero expectancy at the moment you put it on. This is inherent in how options are priced. You will have to guess right about something to make money: amount of movement (or lack of movement) of the underlying, or change in volatility...